（8.15）Argument59【超越自我小组】第十一次作业

hermituforestUID: 2354296

TOPIC: ARGUMENT59 - The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.

"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity-that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun."
WORDS: 376          TIME: 00:38:48          DATE: 2008-8-15 23:27:26

The speaker concludes that because of the connection of worldwide flu and heavy sunspot activity people should avoid prolonged exposure to the sun. I think this conclusion is too hasty.

First of all, we cannot assert there is a connection just based on six years statistics among just the past 300 years. There are two possibilities among the unrecorded years. First, there may be some years expose a worldwide flu but no heavy sunspot activity. Second, perhaps there are heavy sunspot activities without heavy flu epidemics. Because we have no statistics in the years other than 1729, 1832,1918,1957,1968, and 1977, we cannot assert with so limited statistics.

Even if there are connections between worldwide flu epidemics and the heavy sunspot activity, we cannot conclude prolong exposure to the sun is the reason of the worldwide flu. Indeed, more sunlight is one result caused by the heavy sunspot activity. But there are other ones which also caused by the heavy sunspot activity lead a worldwide flu, such as the monsoon and tide. The change of monsoon may lead to heavy flood in some place, which can wash away people's houses and crops and made more microorganism. The microorganism may be the causation of the worldwide flu. The irregular tide can also be the responsibility of the worldwide flu. When the tide changed by the sunspot, the plankton in some place increased with it, which is the best food of some microorganism including the origin of the flu. These possibilities cannot be ignored.

Even assumed that the prolonged exposure to the sun causes the worst worldwide flu epidemics, we cannot suggest residents to avoid it. There are many other serious illnesses caused by lack of the sunlight. Such as cholesterol cannot be transferred to Vitamin D and have risk having Cardio-cerebral vascular diseases which is more serious than the flu. So, people should decide whether they should spend time under the sunlight based on their own health statement instead of the sunspot’s activity.

In the end, the speaker failed to convince us that it is the heavy sunspot activity that caused the worst worldwide flu epidemics and people should avoid prolonged exposure to the sun. He must find more statistics in other years and make a completely estimation.