argument53-超越自我小组

啊拉UID: 2527432

题目：ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
字数：444          用时：00:30:00          日期：2008-8-20 20:40:05

In this argument, the author draws the conclusion that the increased levels of melatonin before bith cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life. Although he/she suggests so sincerely, the conclusion is not convincing, for I find some logical problems in this argument.

The conclusion is based on a simple view: the 25 infants seem shy when they were infants and more than half of these children seem shy now. But the author fails to prove that these children are real shy. Experience and common sense tell me that most infants will be shocked and nervous when they are exposure to unfamiliar stimuli, so the study can only show that those infants who participate were normal. And the follow-up study can also be problematic. Teenagers always regard themselves as shy, for they may fail in the exam or refused by a boy/girl. Such a feeling can only reflect that they are lack of confidence. The outgoing ones may also identified them as shy, for they are afraid of facing of a researcher. What's more, we do not know if 25 in a sufficient number to draw any conclusion. Actually more than millions of children come to the world every year, so 25 may not be a proper number in the study.

Even if we concede that the study is convincing and reasonable, the author still cannot draw the conclusion the melatonin's increasing can cause the children's shyness. Actually, this cause and effect relationship is not clearly. Maybe the children's parents are shy so they inherit the character of their parents. Or it is possible that the children who were more likely to have been conceived in early autumn are a coincidence. Another possibility is that the children's parents were very strict, so they become afraid of anything. When they grow up, they even cannot have amusement with other children. So obviously they become shy. So the increased melatonin may do nothing to the children’s shyness.

Finally, the conclusion that shyness continues into later life is doubtful. Maybe the melatonin can influence the infants, but it may do nothing to the teenagers. It is highly possible that these teenagers' shyness is caused by other factors. Maybe their parent’s divorced so they become afraid of anything. Or perhaps they are very poor so they lose their confidence of life. These factors can also be responsible for the shyness. So the author should not suggest so hasty that the shyness will continue in later life.

In sum, the author fails to convince me about the conclusion. And I suggest that he/she should reconsider about the conclusion or change his/her mind after reading my argument.