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[a习作temp] Argument35 【0906G 文以载道三月四月小组】第一周第一次作业 by liuguagua [复制链接]

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发表于 2009-1-12 00:12:21 |显示全部楼层

ARGUMENT35 - Thefollowing appeared in the summary of a study on headaches suffered by theresidents of Mentia.

"Salicylates are members of the samechemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although manyfoods are naturally rich in salicylates, for the past several decadesfood-processing companies have also been adding salicylates to foods aspreservatives. This rise in the commercial use of salicylates has been found tocorrelate with a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported byparticipants in our twenty-year study. Recently, food-processing companies havefound that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods. Withthis new use for salicylates, we can expect a continued steady decline in thenumber of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia."
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【提纲】
1、  调查不可信，Respondents问题：
a)       调查数据和回复者的代表性问题；
2、  相关误认为时因果
a)       头疼的减少，不一定时水杨酸导致的；可能20年的调查中，这拨人还服用了其它的治头疼的药；
3、  让步即使上面OK，添加剂不一定导致头疼降低。
a)       过多的服用，可能还会恶化；
b)       也没有举例说，减少会稳定持续降低
【正文】
In this summary, the author concluded thatthe number of headaches persons will expect a continued steady decrease withsalicylates in the foods as flavor additives. To support this prediction, theauthor cited a 20-year study about the correlation between the risingcommercial use of salicylates and the declining number of headaches persons.This argument relies on a series of substantiated assumptions, and is thereforeunpersuasive as it stands.

First of all, the problem of argument isthat the author assumes that the 20-year study is statistically reliable.Nevertheless, the author offers no evidence to attest it. We are not informedthat the exact number of people involved in the study and respondents. Moreover,the author does not explain whether this group of people involved is representativeof overall people where salicylates are sold. In addition, this group of peopleis prone to alleviate the headache after using salicylates due to specialphysical genes. Lacking such data, the author cannot convince me that thisstudy is reliable and can be the precondition to draw other conclusions.

Secondly, even assuming that the study isreliable, the author does not provide evidence to explain that it is thesalicylates instead of other factors leads to the decline of headaches. Peoplei nvolved in the study may have other measures to cure the headache diseasesduring the last 20 years, which means that salicylates have no effects ondeclination of headache. Besides, the ease life, better medical technologh and regular living habit will also low the possiblity of headaches.

Thirdly, even if the salicylates areresponsible for the decline of headache, it does not mean that new use asadditives will also result in the declination. Much use of salicylates willproduce negative influences. For that matter, salicylates will result in therise of headache persons instead of declination. In addition, the author doesnot supply any evidences to prove the declination will be steady.

In all, the argument is unpersuasive as itstands. To strengthen this argument, the author must provide the exact numberof how many people are involved in the study and the respondents’ numbers. Tobetter assess the argument, the author must supply the evidences that canjustify it is the salicylates instead of other factors lead to the declinationof headaches persons. I also need to know salicylates as the flavor additivewill take positive effects on the declination.

[ 本帖最后由 liuguagua 于 2009-1-12 00:28 编辑 ]