Argument53【0906G 文以载道三月四月作文小组】第2周第1作业 by qiyiping

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Argument53
Thirteenyears ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signsof mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusualodor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered thatthese infants were more likely than other infants to have beenconceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production ofmelatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-wouldnaturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-upstudy conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-nowteenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy.Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shynessduring infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
13年前，研究者研究了一组在受到不熟悉的刺激比如不寻常的气味和未知声音的录音时表现出轻微紧张的25名婴儿。他们发现这些婴儿比其他婴儿更可能在早秋怀孕，而早秋是他们的母亲分泌的melatonin--一种已知会影响一些大脑功能的荷尔蒙--因日照的减少而增加的季节。在今年早些时候所作的跟踪调查中，这些表现出紧张迹象的儿童--现在已经是十几岁--有一半以上认为自己害羞。显然，出生前melatonin的增加导致婴儿期的羞涩并且这种羞涩将延续至生命更晚的阶段。

1、研究的样本是否足够及有代表性
2、婴儿的轻微紧张是否能证明他们害羞
3、melatonin和害羞是不是因果关系

In this argument the author cites that according to a study a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli are tend to be shy when they are grown up. The author also cites that those infants are more likely to be conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin - a hormone known to affect some brain functions - would naturally increase. And the author concludes that increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.  This argument suffers from several flaws, which renders it unsubstantiated as it stands.

To begin with, this argument is based on a research thirteen years ago which the author provide no evidence to be statically reliable. In order to establish a correlation between shyness and melatonin, the study's sample must be sufficient in size and reprehensive of the people who show shyness in their infancy and teenagers. However the number of infants studied, 25, seems constitute an insufficient small sample to any reliable conclusion about the casual relationship between melatonin and shyness.

Even if the research is statically reliable, the author's assumption that infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli are shy is unjustifiable. The author provides no evidence that infants' signs of mild distress are sufficient to prove that they are shy. It is entirely possible that most of infants who exposed to unfamiliar such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice will show signs of mild distress since it is human nature for people to feel distress when exposed to unfamiliar or unknown stimuli. Without providing enough evidence, the author can not convincingly say that those infants showed shyness, let alone to conclude that increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy.

Even assuming that the group of infants were shy, a direct correlation between melatonin and shyness doesn’t necessary prove that the former cause the later. While a high correlation is a strong evidence of a causal relationship, in itself it is not sufficient. There are many things that can influence the character of a child during twelve years. Perhaps these children were brought up in a such circumstance that they have less chance to communicating with other people; or perhaps the parents who play a important role in constructing the children's character were shy and had some influence on the children. Without accounting for these possibilities, the author can’t conclude that increased levels of melatonin cause shyness in infancy and later life.

In sum, based on the research that is not demonstrated to be statistically reliable, the author unfairly assume that infants' signs of mild distress are sufficient to prove that those infants are shy and that conclude that melatonin cause shyness during infancy and later life. To better bolster the argument, the author should provide evidence that the research is statically reliable and infants’ signs of distress can prove those infants are shy. The author also needs to give us more clear evidence that increased melatonin before birth is sufficient to cause shyness in infancy and later life.

这段时间很忙写的比较少，得补补了。