argument48 12月高强周三的作业请多指教

sunnie_518UID: 2136235

argument48 12月高强周三的作业请多指教
TOPIC: ARGUMENT48 - The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora. "Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."
WORDS: 477          TIME: 0:50:00          DATE: 2006-11-21
提纲：
    1 电脑不一定不是健康下降的原因 论据有问题
    2 开支的多少也健康水平没有必然联系。健康的人不一定用这些产品
    3 经济环境和产品开支没有必然联系。eg：产品质量or特性不满足客户要求，一样会使开支下降。
    4 经济环境变好，也不能保证健康水平提高，其他导致健康下降的原因要考虑。
In this argument, the speaker concludes that the fitness level of cities in Corpora will improve as soon as the decreasing economy recoveries. In order to justify this conclusion, the speaker points out that overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest and he also suggests that recent low expenditures on fitness-related products and services are most likely caused by the decline of the economy. The argument suffers from several logical flaws and is therefore unconvincing.

First of all, the speaker fails to convince us that using of computers has not made citizens less physically fit. The fact that overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest does not substantiate the speaker's assumption. In fact, it is probable that the regions which enjoy the highest fitness levels would see higher physical health level if they have lower ownership of computers and it is also probable that the fitness levels in the regions will decline in near future.

Secondly, the assumption that the level of expenditures on fitness-related products and services are the exact or reliable reflection of fitness level is open to doubt. The possibility that local people turn to outdoor exercises and praise nature food this year can also cause the declining expenditures in such products. Without excluding other facts related to the expenditures, the speaker can not convince us the accuracy of his assertion.

Thirdly, the speaker unfairly assumes that there are positive causal relationships between the economy situation and the expenditures level. Given that the low expenditures on fitness-related products and services happen just at the time when the economy is suffering depression, this observed phenomenon, actually, say little more than these two events are synchronic to each other and that is all. Correspondingly, the increasing of economy does not warrant that people will put more money to purchase such products. If local people don not satisfy the quality or services of such products, they would also be unwilling to purchase such products.

Finally, the speaker ignores other factors other than recent decline in economy as well as spending too much time on computers that may account for the decline in the overall fitness level in Corpora. Other factors-in terms of the deteriorating of living environment such as pollution, the endemic disease possibly exist. Overall, without excluding these factors, the generalization that the recovery of economy will improve the fitness level is too presumptuous for us to believe
In sum, the speaker's argument is weak .To better assess it, we would need to know: (1) current attitudes of people about expenditures on fitness-related products. (2) strong evidence which can illustrate the relationship between economy conditions and expenditures on fitness-related products. (3) whether there are other factor or not lead the decline of fitness levels in Corpora.




[ 本帖最后由 sunnie_518 于 2006-11-22 17:08 编辑 ]

最後の使徒UID: 2257608

In this argument, the speaker concludes that the fitness level levels of cities citizens in Corpora will improve as soon as the decreasing economy recoveries. In order to justify this conclusion, the speaker points out that overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest 这个论据跟论点没有直接联系,是通过否认电脑对健康的作用来论证的,因此放在这不太合适 and he also suggests that recent low expenditures on fitness-related products and services are most likely caused by the decline of the economy这个也不能直接justify this conclusion吧? 要重述也需要准确的理清题目中各要素的关系, 楼主把消费健康产品跟健康水平的这层逻辑关系漏了. The argument suffers from several logical flaws and is therefore unconvincing.

First of all, the speaker fails to convince us that using of computers has not made citizens less physically fit. The fact that overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest does not substantiate the speaker's assumption. In fact, it is probable that the regions which enjoy the highest fitness levels would see higher physical health level if they have lower ownership of computers and it is also probable that the fitness levels in the regions will decline in near future.  Why? If this is true, then what caused the highest fitness levels?
应该直接说明高拥有率高健康率为什么不能支持作者的观点, 而不是直接用一个假设去反驳, 这样显得很具象而没有理论性.

Secondly, the assumption that the level of expenditures on fitness-related products and services are the exact or reliable reflection of fitness level is open to doubt. The possibility that local people turn to outdoor exercises and praise nature food this year can also cause the declining expenditures in such products. 第一句在说健康产品不一定是健康水平的原因, 第二句却在讨论健康产品销量下降的原因, 标红的这句话应该放到下一段里去吧?Without excluding other facts related to the expenditures, the speaker can not convince us the accuracy of his assertion.这句应该也放到后一段.
这段没弄清攻击的方向. 既然是说健康水平的原因，自然应该想跟健康产品平行逻辑关系的原因, 比如工作压力变大, 环境恶化, 人口增加等等, 而不是讨论健康产品销量下降的原因这个逻辑层次上的要素.

Thirdly, the speaker unfairly assumes that there are is a positive causal relationships between the economy situation and the expenditures level on fitness-related products and services个人感觉在一段中重新提起消费这个概念应该明确一下, 而后面则可以简略的说 . Given that the low expenditures on fitness-related products and services happen just at the time when the economy is suffering depression, this observed phenomenon, actually, say says little more than these two events are synchronic to each other and that is all. Correspondingly, the increasing of economy does not warrant that people will put more money to purchase such products. If local people don not satisfy the quality or services of such products, they would also be unwilling to purchase such products.

Finally, the speaker ignores other factors other than recent decline in economy as well as spending too much time on computers that may account for the decline in the overall fitness level in Corpora. Other factors-in terms of the deteriorating of living environment such as pollution, the endemic disease possibly exist. Overall, without excluding these factors, the generalization that the recovery of economy will improve the fitness level is too presumptuous for us to believe
感觉这段跟第二段主题句的攻击方向是一样的

In sum, the speaker's argument is weak .To better assess it, we would need to know: (1) current attitudes of people about expenditures on fitness-related products. (2) strong evidence which can illustrate the relationship between economy conditions and expenditures on fitness-related products. (3) whether there are other factor factors or not lead the decline of fitness levels in Corpora.

总体来说思路比较清晰, 但第二段跟第四段的攻击方向有点一样, 以至于第二段找不到合适的攻击手段而偏离了目标.

开支的多少也健康水平没有必然联系。健康的人不一定用这些产品
经济环境变好，也不能保证健康水平提高，其他导致健康下降的原因要考虑

仔细看下这两条, 第一条说健康的人不一定用这些产品，换言之就是说除了开支之外健康水平下降另有他因, 这不正好是第二条后半句的意思么?

不知道是不是楼主第四条参考了我昨天那篇...我说的意思是, 即使经济下降导致了健康产品销量下降从而使健康水平下降, 经济回升也不能保证健康产品销量回升, 因为经济回升不一定能带来健康产品行业的回升, 而是由于经济行业其它产业的作用. 换言之, 一开始经济下降导致了居民购买力的下降, 从而使健康产品销量下降, 但经济回升以后, 居民购买力不一定回升(影响购买力的因素还有很多,比如供求关系,厂商在经济低谷元气大伤等等,笼统的说经济下降不足以成为原因), 这个攻击点是个比较复杂而且不容易说明白的, 所以不推荐...

sunnie_518UID: 2136235

谢谢last同学的宝贵意见，我会努力改进的，还有，你好强啊