Argument59 请拍砖（关于太阳黑子的）

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The ralation between risk for the flu and heavy sunspot activity

In this article,the author recommended that People at risk for the flu should avoid prolonged exposure to the sun. To support his recommendation, he cites the medical records to show that the six worst worldwide flu epidemics have to do with heavy sunspot activity.However,close scrunity of these evidence lend a littel credible support to his recmmendation
  
The threshold problem with this argument involves that the medical records are statiasticall reliable. As we know,something happened in the past can’t be recorded quite clearly .Lacking such evidence,it is entirely possible that the years recorded when the six worst  worldwide flu epidemics occurred are not accurae.These flu epidemics might actually happened in other years,such as 1730,1831,not the years with heavy sunspot activity.If this is the case,the flu epidemics have nothing to do with heavy sunspot activity and the author can't rely on such evidence to draw any conclusion

Even the years above are right.Also,the years recorded might be unpresentative of the overall years when flu epidemics occured.Maybe during other years when worldwide flu epidemics happened,there were not heavy sunspot activity.Or perhapse,in most of years with heavy sunspot activity,no flu epedemics occured.if any case is,the author's conclusion is unconvincing.

Thirdly,even if all the worldwide flu epidemics happened during the years with heavy sunspot activity,the author unfairly assumes that the exposure to the sun directly causes the flu epidemics and overlooks other possible reasons for the flu epidemics.It is entirely possible that during these years ,as the result of heavy sunplot activity,the climate on earth became much warmer.Thus,the virus  grow more quickly so that it causes flu. Or maybe in these years, body's immunity becomes weak so that we are more easy to be infected  by flu virus.Even it is possible that certain flu virus mutated because of receiving more solar energy so that it became more infectous. the Any of these scennarios,if true,would cast consideral doubt on the author's conclusion that exposure to the sun directly causes the flu  epidemics.

In sum,the argument is not supported well.To boslter his recommendation,the author must provide the years recorded are accurate and are able to be representative of the overall years when worldwide flu epidemics occured. To better assess this argument,I also need to know more information about other changes occured during such years.