Argument47 【Persistence 小组】

小驴子UID: 2222683

47. Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became
significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe
mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding
with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking
enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a
sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian
historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore,
the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.



In this argument, the arguer concludes that the cooling of the earth in the mid-sixth century was probably caused by a volcanic eruption. To support this conclusion, the arguer cites the surviving Asian historical records which mentioned the loud boom that would be consistent with the volcanic eruption. The arguer also claims that the other possibility of the cooling-a large meteorite colliding with Earth would not stand up because there is no clear historical record to support it. A careful scrutiny of the argument would reveal several flaws in it.

The prerequisite of the conclusion that a loud boom mentioned by some Asian historical records doesn't necessarily indicate that it is the indication of the volcanic eruption. Firstly, no direct and clear records prove that this loud boom was caused by the volcanic eruption. It is entirely possible that it was caused by other natural phenomenon like the earth shake or tsunami. Secondly, even if the volcanic eruption caused the loud boom, whether the cooling of Earth was just behind this loud boom is not known. Because the time of the loud boom is not showed in this argument, maybe the occurrence of loud boom was behind the cooling of Earth. If it is happened behind the sudden cooling of Earth, it cannot be the evidence. Even if it happens earlier than it, no evidence showed that there is a close relationship between them.

The other possible event that might cause the Earth cooling is a large meteorite colliding with Earth. However, the auger denies this possibility with the reason that no records of that time found mentioned a flash which might be created by the meteorite collision. The arguer might not analyze this possibility thoroughly. The large meteorite colliding with Earth at that time might not create the sudden bright flash of light. It might happen in some other forms, like a loud boom. Moreover, no records being discovered doesn’t necessarily mean that there is no records. It is entirely possible that ancient people made a record of this sudden flash and the meteorite collision at that time; however, it has been destroyed or cannot be found with the time passing. Or maybe this sudden flash was happened in some other part of Earth where there is no people exist there.

At last, the author only gives two possibilities to explain the cooling of Earth. It might be caused by other reasons rather than the volcanic eruption and the meteorite collision. It is entirely possible that at that time the sun might have some unusual activities or the magnetic field of Earth change a lot, all of which might cause the sudden temperature change in Earth.

In sum, this argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To bolster it, the argument’s author must show the specific records which could prove the occurrence of the volcanic eruption at that time and the relationship with the cooling of Earth. The arguer would also give clear evidence that could prove other possibilities didn’t happen or relate to the cooling of Earth.

iamstoicUID: 2294314

In this argument, the arguer concludes that the cooling of the earth in the mid-sixth century was probably caused by a volcanic eruption. To support this conclusion, the arguer cites the surviving Asian historical records which mentioned the loud boom that would be consistent with the volcanic eruption. The arguer also claims that the other possibility of the cooling-a large meteorite colliding with Earth would not stand up because there is no clear historical record to support it. A careful scrutiny of the argument would reveal several flaws in it. The prerequisite of the conclusion that a loud boom mentioned by some Asian historical records doesn't necessarily indicate that it is the indication of the volcanic eruption. Firstly, no direct and clear records prove that this loud boom was caused by the volcanic eruption. It is entirely possible that it was caused by other natural phenomenonphenomenalike the earth shake or tsunami. Secondly, even if the volcanic eruption caused the loud boom, whether the cooling of Earth was just behind this loud boom is not known. ms与这段的ts不搭Because the time of the loud boom is not showed in this argument, maybe the occurrence of loud boom was behind the cooling of Earth. If it is happened behind the sudden cooling of Earth, it cannot be the evidence. Even if it happens earlier than it, no evidence showed that there is a close relationship between them. The other possible event that might cause the Earth cooling is a large meteorite colliding with Earth. However, the auger denies this possibility with the reason that no records of that time found mentioned a flash which might be created by the meteorite collision. The arguer might not analyze this possibility thoroughly. The large meteorite colliding with Earth at that time might not create the sudden bright flash of light. It might happen in some other forms, like a loud boom. Moreover, no records being discovered doesn’t necessarily mean that there is no records. It is entirely possible that ancient people made a record of this sudden flash and the meteorite collision at that time; however, it has been destroyed or cannot be found with the time passing. Or maybe this sudden flash was happened in some other part parts of Earth where there is no people exist 一个句子里有两verb.there. At last, the author only gives two possibilities to explain the cooling of Earth. It might be caused by other reasons rather than the volcanic eruption and the meteorite collision. It is entirely possible that at that time the sun might have some unusual activities or the magnetic field of Earth change changed a lot, all of which might cause the sudden temperature change in Earth. In sum, this argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To bolster it, the argument’s author must show the specific records which could prove the occurrence of the volcanic eruption at that time and the relationship with the cooling of Earth. The arguer would also give clear evidence that could prove other possibilities didn’t happen or relate to the cooling of Earth. 总体不错,继续加油! PS;由于我对地理方面的知识缺乏,so改动的地方不多.

[ 本帖最后由 iamstoic 于 2007-2-12 01:15 编辑 ]