Argument20【7\8\9\10】第九次作业 7.29

DemiquaverUID: 203651

TOPIC: ARGUMENT20 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."




According to the letter, the author concludes at by limiting the number of mopeds rentals, accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians will reduce in Balmer Island. The argument seems to be well presented, however, under close scrutiny; it is flawed in several aspects.

First of all, the author's conclusion is based on an assumption that there are a lot of accidents involving mopeds occurs on the island and are caused by mopeds. However, there is insufficient evidence to support this assumption such as the amount of accidents in summer months. Perhaps, there are few such accidents happening there and most of accidents are caused by cars while mopeds are the victims. If that is the case, limiting the number of moped rentals will do little to help reduce accident, because pedestrians still run the risk of being pumped by cars. Therefore, it is more important for the town council to inquiry the number of accidents and find out the cause of accidents.

Moreover, even assuming that the accidents are caused by mopeds, the conclusion is still unreliable. The author fails to provide sufficient evidence to prove that the mopeds which involve in accidents are rented from the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies. Perhaps, those mopeds are owned by riders themselves. If so, limiting the number of rentals is not an effective method to reduce accidents, because there may still be a lot of moped on the streets, which belong to people on the island.

Furthermore, there exists another leakage in the argument. The author considers that the number of mopeds rented by each of the companies is above 30 everyday during the summer season. Nevertheless, insufficient evidence is provided to substantiate his consideration. If the companies rent only a few mopeds that below amount of 30 everyday, his suggestion of limitation is useless in reducing number of accidents.

Last but not least, it is unconvincing for the author to conclude that same reduction in moped accidents last year in the neighboring island of Torseau will also happen on Balmer Island. Perhaps, the reduction of accidents by 50% was not the result of limiting the number of rentals. For example, it is possible that few tourists came to Torseau Island last year, on consequence of which, the number of accidents reduced. Or perhaps the conditions of roads on Torsearu Island are considerably improved, which leads to the reduction of accidents.

To sum up, the conclusion of the argument is lack of credibility as it stands. In order to reduce the accidents on Balmer Island, the author should assure that mopeds on the island cause a lot of accidents. Meanwhile, he should ascertain that most of the mopeds are rented and the number of rentals in each company is above 30 everyday. Moreover, he should realize the reasons for accident reduction on Torseau Island.

atreusUID: 2471951

According to the letter, the author concludes at by limiting the number of mopeds rentals, accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians will reduce in Balmer Island. The argument seems to be well presented, however, under close scrutiny; it is flawed in several aspects.

First of all, the author's conclusion is based on an assumption that there are a lot of accidents involving mopeds【and pedestrians】 occurs on the island and are caused by mopeds[这个假设前提找的不错]. However, there is insufficient evidence to support this assumption such as the amount of accidents in summer months. Perhaps, there are few such【指代模糊，最后能详细一点】 accidents happening there and most of accidents are caused by cars while mopeds are the victims. If that is the case, limiting the number of moped rentals will do little to help reduce accident, because pedestrians still run the risk of being pumped by cars. Therefore, it is more important for the town council to inquiry the number of accidents and find out the cause of accidents.

Moreover, even assuming that the accidents are caused by mopeds, the conclusion is still unreliable. The author fails to provide sufficient evidence to prove that the mopeds which involve in accidents are rented from the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies. Perhaps, those mopeds are owned by riders themselves. If so, limiting the number of rentals is not an effective method to reduce accidents, because there may still be a lot of moped on the streets, which belong to people on the island. 【这个观点moped是谁的可以不用这么费笔墨写，倒是下一段应该在多写点】

Furthermore, there exists another leakage in the argument. The author considers that the number of mopeds rented by each of the companies is above 30 everyday during the summer season. Nevertheless, insufficient evidence is provided to substantiate his consideration. If the companies rent only a few mopeds that below amount of 30 everyday, his suggestion of limitation is useless in reducing number of accidents.【好像言犹未尽吧】

Last but not least, it is unconvincing for the author to conclude that same reduction in moped accidents last year in the neighboring island of Torseau will also happen on Balmer Island. Perhaps, the reduction of accidents by 50% was not the result of limiting the number of rentals. For example, it is possible that few tourists came to Torseau Island last year, on consequence of which, the number of accidents reduced. Or perhaps the conditions of roads on Torsearu Island are considerably improved, which leads to the reduction of accidents.

To sum up, the conclusion of the argument is lack of credibility as it stands. In order to reduce the accidents on Balmer Island, the author should assure that mopeds on the island cause a lot of accidents. Meanwhile, he should ascertain that most of the mopeds are rented and the number of rentals in each company is above 30 everyday. Moreover, he should realize the reasons for accident reduction on Torseau Island.

有几个点可能没有注意到，就是夏天人数增多导致事故增多的假设，可以在第二段之后展开；还有降低摩托出租导致事故下降的假设在第四段好像没有充分有力地展开，只是一笔代过