argument65 加州阳光第六次作业.谢谢指教!

timboyUID: 193944

题目：ARGUMENT 65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
(修改后)
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
(REVICED)
提纲:
最新店的不当推广
调查的失误(缺陷, 有效性)
减少库存的缺陷
The argument is well-presented but not thoroughly well-supported. In order to make profits in all of the cheese stores, the author advises to stop stocking the imported cheese whereas focus mainly on domestic cheeses. However, careful scrutiny on the provided evidence reveals that the argument has some distinct defects in some aspects.

To begin with, the author unfairly assums that the success of five best-selling cheeses at the newest store last year can indicates the sales amount of the imported cheeses were less than that of  domestic cheeses one year ago. Perhaps the other stores are mainly welcomed due to the imported cheeses. Or maybe success of the domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin was the only success among the domestic cheeses one year ago. It is also possible that the best-selling cheeses in the newest stores were only welcomed in a very narrow scale in the nation last year. Without comparison between the total amount of selling imported cheeses and that of selling domestic cheeses in all the stores throughout the US last year, it is hasty to conclude that the domestic cheeses were more popular than imported cheeses one year ago.

Furthermore, the survey cited in the argument is defective in some respects . Although the survey indicates that the increasing preference for domestic cheeses, the ignorance of the comparison between the domestic cheeses and the imported cheeses weakens the evidence. It is entirely possible that people still prefer imported cheeses though their interests on domestic cheeses are gradually increasing . In addition, the validation of the survey is doubted. The author fails to reveal the details of the survey such as the respondents of the subscribers.  Perhaps the readers who reported in the survey are so few or so concentrated in one or two places that they can not represent people national wide. Or maybe the people, who have increasing interests in the domestic cheeses, are mostly from a certain age scale such as 30 to 40 years old. Without the comparison of the preference between domestic cheeses and the imported cheeses as well as details of the survey such as the respondents, I am afraid the survey is not convincing enough to support the conclusion.

Another shortcoming of the argument is the assertion that limiting inventory will certainly lead to profit increase. Though the store can reduce its inventory expenses by abandoning the stock of a large variety of imported cheese, its sales is unlikely to promise any significant improvement in the future. Even if the imported cheeses are less popular than the domestic cheeses, without inventory of imported cheese, it is much likely that the stores will lose a large amounts of customers who prefer imported cheese. As cheese sales decreases, the prediction of a profit improvement by cutting the inventory expenses is unconvincing.

In conclusion, in order to convince us to believe the approach that stopping the inventory of imported cheeses but concentrating primarily on domestic cheeses, the author should convince us that the total selling amount of imported cheeses are much less than that of the domestic cheeses. In addition, the author needs to survey the comparison of preference to two kinds of cheeses among the subscribers and also should provide some critical details of the survey such as the specific state of the respondents which are from national wide and from different scales of age. Finally, both the losing profit and cutting expanse of inventory of the imported cheeses should be considered in order to make sure that the approach can make profit eventually.

[ 本帖最后由 timboy 于 2006-7-5 20:07 编辑 ]

timboyUID: 193944

自己顶一下

benniUID: 2166321

谢拍

The argument is well-presented but not thoroughly well-supported. In order to make profits in all of the cheese stores, the author advises to stop stocking the imported cheese whereas focus mainly on domestic cheeses. However, careful scrutiny on the provided evidence reveals that the argument has some distinct defects in some aspects.

To begin with, the success of five best-selling cheeses at the newest store last year does not indicate (that) the selling amount of the imported cheeses are less than that of domestic cheeses in the long run. Perhaps other stores, which are not the newest store, are mainly welcomed by the domestic cheeses.(逻辑主语是cheese？不对吧) Or maybe success of the domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin was only one success among the domestic cheeses. Or maybe the best-selling cheeses in the newest stores were only welcomed in a very narrow scale in the nation. Without comparison between the total amount of selling imported cheeses and that of selling domestic cheeses in all the stores throughout the US last year, it is hasty to conclude that the domestic cheeses were more popular than imported cheeses.

Furthermore, the survey is not the compelling evidence to prove that the domestic cheeses are more popular than imported cheeses. Though the survey indicates that the increasing preference for domestic cheeses, the ignorance of the comparison between the domestic cheeses and the imported cheeses weaken the evidence. It is entirely possible that people still prefer imported cheeses though their interests on domestic cheeses are increasing gradually. In addition, the validation of the survey is doubted. The author fails to reveal the details of the survey such as the respondents of the subscribers.  Perhaps the people who reported in the survey are so few or so concentrated in one or two places that they can not represent people national wide. Or maybe the people, who have increasing interest in the domestic cheeses, are mostly from a certain age scale. Without the comparison of the preference between domestic cheeses and the imported cheeses as well as details of the survey such as the respondents, I am afraid the survey is not convincing enough to support the conclusion. （虽然这两段是从两个角度说明一个问题，不过ts最好换一下。你这段的ts和上一段的结论句说的是一回事儿。）

Another shortcoming of the argument is that the author mistakenly indicates that limiting inventory will certainly lead to profit increase. Though the store can reduce its inventory expenses by abandoning the stock of a large variety of imported cheese, its sales is unlikely to promise any significant improvement in the future. Even if the imported cheeses are less popular than the domestic cheeses, without inventory of imported cheese, it is much likely that the stores will lose a large amounts of customers who prefer imported cheese. As cheese sales decreases, the prediction of a profit improvement by cutting the inventory expenses is unconvincing.

In conclusion, in order to convince us to believe the approach that stopping the inventory of imported cheeses but concentrating primarily on domestic cheeses, the author should promise（这词太主观了） that the total selling amount of imported cheeses are（is） much less than that of the domestic cheeses. In addition, the author must survey the comparison of preference to two kinds of cheeses among the subscribers and also should provide some critical details of the survey such as the specific state of the respondents to promise them are from national wide and from different scales of age. Finally, both the losing profit and cutting expanse of inventory of the imported cheeses should be considered in order to make sure (that) the approach can make profit eventually.