Argument65 【today is the day小组】 by woyun

woyunUID: 2522051

65.The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

提纲: 1. 5个最好的是N不能代表所有国产的都比进口的好. 要看平均情况
     2. 一个最新的店不能代表所有连锁店
     3.调查存在很多问题
     4. 利益问题


In this argument, the arguer recommends that stopping stocking the imported cheese and forcing on domestic ones can increase profits. To justify this claim, the arguer provides the evidence that at the newest, the domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin served as the five best-selling cheeses. In addition, he cites the result of a recent survey that an increasing number of people preferred domestic cheeses among the subscribers of the Cheese of the World magazine. A careful examination of this argument would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.

To begin with, the mere fact that the five best-selling cheeses were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin is sufficient evidence to conclude that domestic cheeses sell better than the imported ones. The arguer fails to provide us the detail information about the important cheese's selling. There is possibility that among thousands of cheeses, expect from the five-best selling cheeses, all the other kinds that can be sold out are imported. When it comes to the total amount sold out, the imported cheeses may far outweigh the domestic ones.

Even if I were to concede at the newest store the domestic chesses sold better than the imported ones, this single sample - the newest one - is insufficient to draw the conclusion that all of the stores were in the same case. It is entirely possible that the Wisconsin chesses corporation conducted certain sales promotion in the newest store. Without additional samples from diverse stores, I cannot accept the arguer' sweeping generalization.

Another problem with the argument involves the statistical reliability of the survey. In the first place, the survey' respondents, the subscribers of Cheese of the World magazine, is not representative of the overall group people who will buy the chesses. Moreover, the arguer provides no evidence that the number of respondents is statistically significant and no information about how the survey was conducted. The argument fails to rule out the possibility that many imported chesses lovers didn't subscribe the magazine and al lot of respondents didn't send back their answers. Lacking evidence that the respondents reports were both truthful and meaningful the arguer cannot draw any conclusion about consumers' prefers to those two kinds of chesses.

In addition, even assuming that the survey is statistically reliable and the stores can sell out more domestic chesses than the imported ones, a direct correlation between the increase of selling amount and the improvement of profits does not necessary prove that the former causes the later, as the arguer fails to provide us the per profit of the cheese. Just image the store can only gain 1 dollar from every bottle of the domestic cheese with a selling amount of 200 everyday while 3 dollars from the imported with a selling amount of 100 everyday, we can clearly see that the imported chesses bring more benefits rather than the domestic.  In this case, discontinue stocking the imported chesses is not a wise choice.

As it stands, the argument is not well reasoned. To make it is logically acceptable, the arguer would have to demonstrate that the sales of domestic chesses enjoy an increasing at all stores. Additionally, the arguer must provide more information about the sales and profits of per unit in detail, and a more convictive survey will strengthen the conclusion.

graceyc2000UID: 2149262

In this argument, the arguer recommends that stopping stocking the imported cheese and forcing on domestic ones can increase profits. To justify this claim, the arguer provides the evidence that at the newest, the domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin served as the five best-selling cheeses. In addition, he cites the result of a recent survey that an increasing number of people preferred domestic cheeses among the subscribers of the Cheese of the World magazine. A careful examination of this argument would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.

To begin with, the mere fact that the five best-selling cheeses were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin is sufficient evidence to conclude that domestic cheeses sell better than the imported ones. The arguer fails to provide us the detail information about the important cheese's selling. There is possibility that among thousands of cheeses, expect from the five-best selling cheeses, all the other kinds that can be sold out are imported. When it comes to the total amount sold out, the imported cheeses may far outweigh the domestic ones.这个没什么好说的，只是读起来这段话怎么都觉着逻辑不是很严密，作者的理由并不是你说的那么样，你自己仔细读一读题目，你没有理解那个层层递进的关系，寄托上面有这个具体的分析，你可以搜一下看看

Even if I were to concede at the newest store the domestic chesses sold better than the imported ones, this single sample - the newest one - is insufficient to draw the conclusion that all of the stores were in the same case. It is entirely possible that the Wisconsin chesses corporation conducted certain sales promotion in the newest store. Without additional samples from diverse stores, I cannot accept the arguer' sweeping generalization.

Another problem with the argument involves the statistical reliability of the survey. In the first place, the survey' respondents, the subscribers of Cheese of the World magazine, is not representative of the overall group people who will buy the chesses. Moreover, the arguer provides no evidence that the number of respondents is statistically significant and no information about how the survey was conducted. The argument fails to rule out the possibility that many imported chesses lovers didn't subscribe the magazine and al lot of respondents didn't send back their answers. Lacking evidence that the respondents reports were both truthful and meaningful the arguer cannot draw any conclusion about consumers' prefers to those two kinds of chesses.

In addition, even assuming that the survey is statistically reliable and the stores can sell out more domestic chesses than the imported ones, a direct correlation between the increase of selling amount and the improvement of profits does not necessary prove that the former causes the later, as the arguer fails to provide us the per profit of the cheese. Just image the store can only gain 1 dollar from every bottle of the domestic cheese with a selling amount of 200 everyday while 3 dollars from the imported with a selling amount of 100 everyday, we can clearly see that the imported chesses bring more benefits rather than the domestic.  In this case, discontinue stocking the imported chesses is not a wise choice.

As it stands, the argument is not well reasoned. To make it is logically acceptable, the arguer would have to demonstrate that the sales of domestic chesses enjoy an increasing at all stores. Additionally, the arguer must provide more information about the sales and profits of per unit in detail, and a more convictive survey will strengthen the conclusion.