argu99[shining sep]第七次作业

xuxinyunUID: 2198143

ARGUMENT99The following appeared in a memo from the economic minister of the small country Paucia.

"Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year. To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops. Such high yields of rice will also improve our country's balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it."

字数：461  时间：30分钟  日期：8-22

  In this argument, the economic minister of the small country Paucia advocates that they should encourage the farmers to cultivate a new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops in order to increase the income of farmers in their country. This recommendation is based on a comparison between Abundia and their country. Meanwhile, the minister assumes their country’s balance of trade to be improved by enabling them to begin exporting the new seed. This argument is problematic for several reasons.

  To begin with, the memo suffers from a false analogy. That Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year after using a newly developed variety of seed cannot infer that the same result will happen in Paucia. As known to all, there are many factors to decide the kind of plant. It is very likely that the climate in Paucia is more suitable for the crops instead of rice so that if they plant the new seed the plant may be not grown very well. Chance is that the soil in Paucia does not fit the new seed. It is also possible that the new seed needs lots of water while Pucia is lack of water. There are too many other factors so that the comparison between the two countries is quite unpersuasive.

  What is more, even though the comparison is reasonable, it dose not mean that the income of farmers in Paucia will increase. It is true that the seed is an crucial factor, but many other factor will also influence the grow of the plant. The sunshine may be little this year so that the harvest may be not good. That the rain may be too much this year also may make the harvest may be not good. Only has good seed may not decide the income of the farmer. What is more, the quality of the seed is not known. The more production does not mean the better quality. Consequently, it is not reasonable to say that the income of the farmer will be improved.

  Finally, no evidence shows that high yields of rice will also improve their country's balance of trade by enabling them to begin exporting it. The balance of the trade is decided by complicated factors such as the world market, the world’s policy and so on. Hence, we cannot simply say that the high yields of rice will improve the balance.


  As it stands, the argument is not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptable, the arguer would have to demonstrate that the new kind of seed is suitable for Paucia. Additionally, the minister had better make a specific study on the situation of the country and provide evidence that the country will benefit from it.

expire7UID: 2160574

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