argument20 [7\8\9\10]第九次作业

小猪sisiUID: 2453484

20The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the
number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should
limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies
from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the
town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last
year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on
moped rentals."
字数：467  时间：30m
In the argument, the arguer asserts that Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies. To support his assertion, the arguer cites example of the neighboring island of Torseau, which was succeeded in decreasing 50 percent of moped accidents last year. Although this argument seems sound and acceptable, it contains several severe logical fallacies.

First of all, the arguer set Torseau Island as an example to demonstrate that the reduction of mopeds rentals lead to the declining of accidents involving moped. However, the arguer does not supply any evidence to prove that point and it is entirely possible that even though Torseau Island enforced such kind of limits on rentals, it did not work but other policies such as speed limits and roads expanding resulted in the effective reduction in moped accidents. In this consequence, the arguer has no reason to assume the cause-and-effect relationship between limits on moped rentals and the reduction in moped accidents, just for the two things happened one after another. Thus, unless the arguer supplies evidence to show the decreasing in moped accidents due to the limits on moped rentals, the argument is dubious and unacceptable.

Secondly, admittedly that such limits on moped rentals played an important role in controlling
moped accidents, the arguer assumes without any warrantees that if that limits worked in Torseau
Island, it would also effect in Balmer Island. Maybe these two islands have distinct road conditions that the major reason of mopeds accidents in Balmer Island is roads that are rough and banded. Without ruling out such possibilities, the arguer should not suppose that the similar limits would be effective in solving moped accidents.

Finally, even if that limits would work in Balmer Island, arguer fails to consider the population of
Balmer Island. As the argument shows that the population of Balmer Island increases to 100000 during the summer months, it could be probable that only in summer the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians increases, and thus there is no need to enforce limits on moped rentals but to offer pedestrians more space to walk on to help them avoid walking on the road, which causes accidents. And doing so would benefit both moped companies and citizens. Therefore, the arguer should not hast to enforce that limit without considering other methods to solve the problem.

To sum up,  arguer fails to substantiate that limits on moped rentals worked and that limit would be effective when enforced in Balmer Island. To make his argument logical, arguer should have to cite convincing evidence to show how limit on moped rentals worked and the possibility of that limits worked in Balmer Island. In order to strength the argument, arguer still need to analyze other possible methods.

野猪大改造UID: 2484392

In the argument, the arguer asserts that Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies. To support his assertion, the arguer cites example of the neighboring island of Torseau, which was succeeded in decreasing 50 percent of moped accidents last year. Although this argument seems sound and acceptable, it contains several severe logical fallacies. 开头结论，论据， 点出漏洞这三方面都顾及到了

First of all, the arguer set Torseau Island as an example to demonstrate that the reduction of mopeds rentals lead to the declining of accidents involving moped. However, the arguer does not supply any evidence to prove that point and it is entirely possible that even though Torseau Island enforced such kind of limits on rentals, it did not work but other policies such as speed limits and roads expanding resulted in the effective reduction in moped accidents. In this consequence, the arguer has no reason to assume the cause-and-effect relationship between limits on moped rentals and the reduction in moped accidents, just for the two things happened one after another. Thus, unless the arguer supplies evidence to show the decreasing in moped accidents due to the limits on moped rentals, the argument is dubious and unacceptable.

Secondly, admittedly that such limits on moped rentals played an important role in controlling
moped accidents, the arguer assumes without any warrantees that if that limits worked in Torseau
Island, it would also effect in Balmer Island. Maybe these two islands have distinct road conditions that the major reason of mopeds accidents in Balmer Island is roads that are rough and banded. Without ruling out such possibilities, the arguer should not suppose that the similar limits would be effective in solving moped accidents.

Finally, even if that limits would work in Balmer Island, arguer fails to consider the population of
Balmer Island. As the argument shows that the population of Balmer Island increases to 100000 during the summer months, it could be probable that only in summer the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians increases, and thus there is no need to enforce limits on moped rentals but to offer pedestrians more space to walk on to help them avoid walking on the road, which causes accidents. And doing so would benefit both moped companies and citizens. Therefore, the arguer should not hast to enforce that limit without considering other methods to solve the problem.

三段有逻辑层次，看得出来楼主精心安排过这个顺序。而且是对2个城市的对比展开的三段衔接的很紧密。

To sum up,  arguer fails to substantiate that limits on moped rentals worked and that limit would be effective when enforced in Balmer Island. To make his argument logical, arguer should have to cite convincing evidence to show how limit on moped rentals worked and the possibility of that limits worked in Balmer Island. In order to strength the argument, arguer still need to analyze other possible methods.
:) 楼主的这篇文章写的已经非常熟练了，逻辑攻击的套路也很熟悉。而且在30m里完成，很不错。