ARGUMENT20 【7/8/9/10】ciludali21 第九次作业~7.29

tsayUID: 2492916

  In the argument, the author commendthatBalmer island should limit the number ofrentals of mopeds in order to reduce the accidents. To support thecommendation, the author cites that Torseau has achieved that reduction withthe similar limits. The argument has flaws in several aspects.
  To begin with, the author fails to considerthat other alternatives  that mayincrease the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. When the numberof moped and bicycle rented by each of company has been limited. People willconsider to buy moped and bicycle other than renting them if they really likethat way. Thus, the use of them has also increased accordingly. The accidentsinvolving them would not be reduced, but increased.
  Another problem with the argument is that thesimilar limits on moped rentals in Torseau does not mean in Balmer island wouldhave the same effect.The author fails to consider the differences betweenBalmer island and Torseau. perhaps citizen in Torseau like to rent moped andbicycle rather than to buy them. Or perhaps the number of moped and bicyclerental companies in Balmer island  is significantlymore than Torseau, the result is the number of them is still much more thanTorseau even after the limits action.
Finally ,even assuming the limits might reducethe accidents in Balmer island, the conclusion of 50 percent reduction in mopedaccidents can not be  easily made. More, orless, than 50 percent of accidents is entirely possible even though the limitsof 50 per day to 30 per day has been committed. Without the detailed evidence, theauthor cannot convince me that 50 percent reduction is assured.
The conclusionthat limits of mopeds and bicycle results in reduction of accidents seems logical,but the author does not supply the evidence that no other alternativepossibility to increase Balmer island's moped -pedestrian accident rate willoccur in the unforeseeable future. the author must also provide clear evidencethat last year's decline in moped accidents in Orseau was attributable  primarily to its moped rental restrictions ratherthan other factors.

ciludali21UID: 2173816

写得很清楚，不过还有一点，是不是Torseau的事故减少确实与减少租车量有关呢？作者并没有给出明确关联，我写了这点，不知道算不算鸡蛋里挑骨头了