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发表于 2006-3-5 18:03:52 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览
本帖最后由 Jianchuan 于 2014-3-19 09:05 编辑

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发表于 2006-3-7 16:38:49 |只看该作者
Based on the fact that the sales of Hyper-Go's pre-bestseller Fierce Fighter toy airplane declined sharply, the president recommends in his memo that Hyper-Go (HG) should discontinue all their action toys and focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys. To justify his conclusion, the president also cites the facts that parents are more concerned about youthful violence, and other toy companies have shifted their staples. This argument sound somewhat convincing at the first glance. However, close scrutiny reveals that this recommendation is problematic in several respects and thus untenable.

First, the president unwarrantedly asserts that the trend that parents are more worried about youthful violence attribute to the decline in sales. The president assumes that the Fierce Fighter is a "violent" toy, but he provided no sufficient evidence to demonstrate the parents think in the way he does. After all, there could be many other possible explanations for the decline. Maybe the market is too small to sell Fierce Fighter any more, since it had been a top seller for three years. Perhaps it is so popular that every kid has one and therefore no kid needs any more.

Even if the assumption is substantiated, this might be an individual case. So there is no reason to believe that HG should discontinue all their action toys. No evidence has shown that the sales of other action toys declined. Also it is open to doubt that all the action toys HG produces are violent. Further, there is no any(删去吧,要么no,要么not any) reason to believe that children playing violent toys will be involved in violent action.

Moreover, that fact that parents now are concerned about better education for their children is not sufficient to reach the conclusion in this argument. The president overlooks this horrible possibility that the parents might think all toys are not(每次都涉及到这个问题,完全否定与不完全否定,none are是完全否定,all are not是不完全否定,猜想你这的意思是完全否定吧,所以改成none are) good for better education and therefore turn to some other methods, such as books, educational videos, etc. Without ruling out this possibility the decision to shift staple is risky.

It is also necessary to point out the fact that some other companies marketing educational toys reported sales increases has nothing to do with the marketing of HG. No evidence cited shows that the companies are enjoying more profit. It is easy to understand that some company firstly shifting into a market experience some growth in sale. It is also easy to understand that growing sales do not indicate profit, because it is important to consider the costs. Additionally, even all assumptions above are valid, it is also open to doubt whether HG has the capacity to compete with the other companies.

All in all, the evidence cited in this argument is vague and incomplete, thus the conclusion reached here is unconvincing. To bolster this argument, the president should prove that the action toys HG produces are in fact violent and indeed affected the sales. The arguer should also prove that there is a market for educational toys. To better assess his recommendation, I need additional information about the profitability of educational toys.
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