argument47[0710G ＋U Aug小组]第11次作业

ldsunUID: 2329026

In this argument the author states that the cooling happened in the mid-sixth century was most likely caused by a volcanic eruption. The author presents an analysis of two possible reasons that would cause a dimming sun thus cold temperature to support that conclusion. With my reflection, I find several flaws in this argument especially in the analysis, and I will discuss them in turn.

First of all, the fact that those accounts found in Asia and Europe which mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold weather is insufficient to conclude that a dimming of the sun led to the cooling. We all know that it is a complex natural phenomenon, so there would be lots of reasons. Maybe little sunlight was one reason, but it is entirely possible that it is not the major reason. Without more information about the causation of that cooling, we cannot be convinced that it is little sunlight led to the cooling. And the analysis based on this assumption is useless, thus the conclusion of this argument.

Secondly, even if a dimming of the sun contributed the most to the cooling, however, analysis of only two possible reasons is obviously open to question. There are possibly some other reasons which can caused a dimming of the sun, such as a big fire, and lots of smoke produced; or during that period the sun is not active that much. So, lacking such explanation, it is inappropriate to make conclusion based on that analysis.

Last but not least, the analysis also flaws to some extent. Give that there was a few of historical records, it is untenable to rule out meteorite collision because there is no such records. What is more, the author believed that a loud boom can be consistent with a volcanic eruption, which is ridiculous. There could be lots of explanation to that loud boom, such as an earth break. All those flaws could show that the analysis lends little support to the author's conclusion.

In sum, the argument is unreasonable and contains lots of flaws as discussed above. To make it better, the author needs prove that it is exactly a dimming of the sun that caused the cooling; the author needs also remind the analysis to make it persuasive.