argument117

cuilei_1985UID：2121020

argument117
117The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."

The manager concludes that all Walu Mart stores will increase the stock of home office machines as well as office supplies so that our office-supply can become the most profitable component of our stores. To support his conclusion, the author cited a survey to show that most respondents are required to finish more work at home than they were in the past. However, the survey suffers from certain statistical problems and doubtful assumptions which render the argument unpersuasive.

First, the manager has not convinced me that the respondents in the survey are representative of the general people. It is entirely possible that most of the respondents are white-collars which is more likely to take their work home. Perhaps the survey is done in a glorious, bustle city which is not typical of the overall cities in the states. For example, maybe most of people live in the city where the survey is held are young people, they are more vigorous and impassioned and more ready to work at home. Therefore, the statistics are not representative, doubtful at best.

Even if the survey is believable, the manager also relies on a doubtful assumption that the trend of work at home will lead to a huge need for office machines and other office supplies. Above all, whether the trend will continue is not known to us. Even if this is the case, no evidence shows that the need for office supplies will increase. Maybe people working at home only need computers. To further analysis, even though the people may need more office supplies, those people may do not leave near the Valu Mart stores. Therefore, it is unnecessary to suggest all the Valu Mart stores will increace the stock of office supplies.

In addition, the author also believes an unsound assumption that the increase of stock in the office supplies will surly increase the profit. The manager fails to consider other important factors such as the competition with other stores, the relation between need and supply; the tendency of recent market and also the policy of money or shares. Moreover, the manager does not make a comparison with our components. It is entirely possible that the general price of another  component is lower than ours while the general profit is much higher. Thus, the manager has made a hasty conclusion which needs further analysis and consideration.

In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the manager must convince the survey is representative and there are indeed increasing need in all our stores.  To better evaluate the argument I would need more information about whether the increase of the stock can surly enhance our profit and make our component become the most profitable.

咯噔UID：2114564

argument117

argument117
117The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past这个是不是错误类比啊?, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."

The manager concludes that all Walu Mart stores will increase the stock of home office machines as well as office supplies so that our office-supply can become the most profitable component of our stores. To support his conclusion, the author cited a survey to show that most respondents are required to finish more work at home than they were in the past. However, the survey suffers from certain statistical problems and doubtful assumptions which render the argument unpersuasive.

First, the manager has not convinced me that the respondents in the survey are representative of the general people. It is entirely possible that most of the respondents are white-collars白领就带工作回家? which is more likely to take their work home. Perhaps the survey is done in a glorious, bustle city which is not typical of the overall cities in the states. For example, maybe most of people live in the city where the survey is held are young people,YOUNG PEOPLE喜欢回家工作?这句有点绝对话.我觉得象设计啊,写作啊就会在家,而工厂啊只类肯定只有在单位上啊 they are more vigorous and impassioned and more ready to work at home. Therefore, the statistics are not representative, doubtful at best.

Even if the survey is believable, the manager also relies on a doubtful assumption that the trend of work at home will lead to a huge need for office machines and other office supplies. Above all, whether the trend will continue is not known to us. Even if this is the case, no evidence shows that the need for office 应该是ALL吧 supplies will increase. Maybe people working at home only need computers. To further analysis, even though the people may need more office supplies, those people may do not leave near the Valu Mart stores. Therefore, it is unnecessary to suggest all the Valu Mart stores will increace the stock of office supplies.

In addition, the author also believes an unsound assumption that the increase of stock in the office supplies will surly increase the profit. The manager fails to consider other important factors such as the competition with other stores, the relation between need and supply; the tendency of recent market and also the policy of money or shares. Moreover, the manager does not make a comparison with our? components. It is entirely possible that the general price of another  component is lower than ours while the general profit is much higher. Thus, the manager has made a hasty conclusion which needs further analysis and consideration.

In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the manager must convince the survey is representative and there are indeed increasing need in all our stores.  To better evaluate the argument I would need more information about whether the increase of the stock can surly enhance our profit and make our component become the most profitable.

我觉得写得挺好,有条理.还有个错误类比作者没写.不过是应该无所谓

cuilei_1985UID：2121020

谢谢指点,不过我觉得那个不是错误类比吧,都是说一个公司跟谁比呢?:handshake

cuilei_1985UID：2121020

今天作业:
issue121
issue131
issue147
都是本月高频
我替组长出issue吧，兄弟们都等不及了，建议今天要写得iissue前一天晚上给出

cuilei_1985UID：2121020

https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=326853