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Argument 147_第一篇啊,欢迎猛拍!
Argument 147 The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months.
分析:
背景:两年来销售量下降
目的:销售量猛增
手段:推出逼真画面的游戏;针对10-25(最可能玩游戏)广泛宣传
理由:玩家认为画面逼真最重要(需要新式电脑)
错误:
理由不足以支持手段:玩家认为某因素最重要和最终选择是两码事,最终选择考虑的是各种因素的综合结果(分两部分)
销售量下降的原因可能有其他:竞争因素(新对手加入,产品类似,服务更好)
From 20:55 to 22:10
In order to reverse the declining sales, Whirlwind carried out actually two policies: introducing video games with lifelike graphics and advertising their products to people 10 to 25 years old. Since the survey result that players prefer such games superficially support the strategy, and its advertising objects are the most likely consumer group, the arguer draw the conclusion that the sales of Whirlwind video games are possible to increase dramatically in the next few months.
In the author’s line of reasoning, there exists a latent assumption that consumers would choose the product that own his favorite quality regardless other elements, which is controversial at least in two aspects, as far as I’m concerned.
First of all, there are a great many qualities, other than mere graphics to be considered when people choose video games. The sinuosity of its plot, and whether it’s convenient to operate and so forth, may also be important elements, though they are less emphasized than lifelike graphics by players. Admittedly, there would be no alternatives when comparing several video games among which one is superior than any other one in terms of all these elements. However, in most cases things would be quite different, usually with several products providing their advantages in distinct qualities. So from this point, making a decision between a video game with highly lifelike graphics but an insipid story and one providing good lifelike graphics and also a good plot might be a dilemma. Nobody could assure that consumers would always choose the former, and for me, I’m more likely to get the latter one.
Secondly, if we put aside the products’ various quality elements aside, another apparent fallacy shows up. That is, another considerable restriction, the conditions of computers, was neglected. As is known to us all, the more realistic the graphic is, the higher standard of a computer would be needed. Consumers are confronted with the balance between playing a video game and replacing their computers to more up-to-date ones. Even if they determine to renew their computers for the sake of trying the game finally after suffering consideration, the process of realizing the plan is rather troublesome. Since most of our consumers are youngsters of 10 to 25, a great majority of whom get financial aids from their parents, the excuse of changing computers so as to enjoy a video game sounds a little ridiculous to parents. Thus, considering all the above situations, to buy the game, or not, remains a problem.
Furthermore, there would be other causation of the sales declination of Whirlwind during the past two years, for instance, competitive factors and other outside ingredients. Maybe, some more similar companies crowded in the market of Whirlwind, whose products are quite the same or even better, and whose after-sale services are more human and welcomed, and so forth.
In sum, merely basing on the result of a survey to verdict whether these policies would be efficient is unadvisable, at least the possible situations mentioned should be involved in the process of analytic reasoning.
这两天课程作业之类的太多了,很对不起大家,提纲和修改一定尽快补上。 |
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