Argument45 graduate06--Hamming组 自己的第2篇Argument.

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Argument45.

The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

( WORDS: 365          TIME: 36:00          DATE: 2006-11-23日凌晨)

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

北极鹿生活在加拿大极地区域的岛屿上。它们全年都通过冰块在岛屿间移动来寻找食物。它们的栖居地局限在那些温暖得足以维持它们所需的植物生长，并且在一年的至少某些时候冷到足以让岛屿间的海面结冰以使它们能够在岛屿间旅行的地方。然而，根据当地猎人的报告，鹿的数量正在下降。由于这一报告正好与最近导致海洋冰面融化的全球变暖趋势同时发生，我们可以得出结论：北极鹿数量的下降是它们无法按它们原有的迁移习惯穿越结冰海面的结果。

中文提纲：
1.suevey问题，reports的真实性，与可靠性。
2.Hasty generalization, 差异范围，全球变暖趋势不能说明当地的气温的却也变暖了。
3.因果关系错，concurrence 与 因果关系混淆。

(WORDS: 365          TIME: 上午 36:00          DATE: 2006-11-24日凌晨)
正文：
The editorial contains several facets that are incredible. First, the generalizability and reliability of the reports of local hunters is open to question. In addition, the editorial commits a fallacy of false generalization. The author also incorrectly assumes concurrence is equally to causal relationship. I will discuss each of the facets in turn.

In the first place, the author must examine that whether or not the reports of local hunters are reliable. Lacking such evidence it is completely possible that the hunters provided the reports just from their feelings and experiences. Perhaps, there are a little number of hunters in Canada's arctic region and the field of the their hunting is limited. So maybe they don't know the total number of the deer at all.  

Another point worth considering is that the author fails to examine the differences between the global warming trends and the local situation. Without the evidence that the local weather is wormer as the global trends, it is entirely possible that the weather of Canada's arctic region is aberrant recently. Perhaps, the local weather is as cold as the past. How does the author convince us by providing such unconvincing evidence?

Finally, even assuming that the local weather is warmer, the editorial remains unreliable. The author incorrectly assumes that the warmer weather is responsible for the declining of the amounts of the deer. Just as the editorial cites that the deer's habitat is limited to warm areas where they can find enough plants for food, the local weather is so warm that most of the islands are suitable for the living of the deer. Accordingly, the deer needn't to travel to other islands for finding food.

In conclusion, the editorial, while it seems logical at first, has several flaws as discussed above. The editorial's author cannot justify his or her conclusion on the basis of the scant evidence provided in the editorial. The editorial could be improved by providing the evidence that the reports of local hunters are credible--that the local weather is warmer than the past. It could be further improved by substantiating that the causal relationship between the warm climate and the declining number of the deer is existed.

这片和上篇都是出自一个模版，时间上比上篇缩短了4分钟，但是字数相应也变少了。我会继续在速度方面下功夫的

[ 本帖最后由 graduate06 于 2007-2-3 12:15 编辑 ]