ARGUMENT147 米国有米寒假3号第八次作业

cckantUID: 2247822

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 449          TIME: 0:41:40          DATE: 2007-2-3

Outline:
1, 不知道过去销售下降的原因，调查不能支持销售会上升
2， 新的产品单单是满足了一个人们认为最重要的特点，并不保证新产品的成功。

In this article, the arguer suggests that the sales of Whirlwind video game are likely to increase after two years of decline. The arguer supports his argument by citing a survey of video game players, which conclude that the most important feature as responded for a video game is coincide with several video games just launched by the company, and that an extensive advertising campaign is underway. However, the critical elements in the reasoning are missed and several logical defects invalidate this argument.

To begin with, without information about why the sales of Whirlwind video game have declined over the past two years, the survey cited contains little information in predicting the change in sales, given the new introduction of several video games. If the Whirlwind video games experienced declined sales because of the altered public preference to video games, i.e. decreasing people were attracted to video games, rather than being caused by the bad performance in operation and product designs, then good products does not necessarily boost sales. For the survey to substantiate the claimed conclusion, the argument must provide evidence that the decline in sales was attributable to that the products in the last two years do not suit the consumers' taste. However, no such evidence is available in the article.

In addition, the argue unjustifiably to assume that the new introduced video games with lifelike graphics, as the most important features the surveyed players think, will suffice to increase sales. Other factors have impact in the sales of video game. Firstly, as the most important feature, assuming the survey is representative to the market consumers, lifelike graphics may be necessary to a successful video game. However, it does not mean that these features are sufficient to guarantee good sales. Other features, like smooth graphics, ease to learn, nice interface may be necessary for a hot sold game. Lacking these features, albeit with lifelike graphics, may fail in the market. Secondly, as mentioned, the most up-to-date computers required to perform the video games with lifelike graphics. Perhaps there is only a small number or potential consumer of the games can afford or own a most up-to-date computer, which would dramatically constrain the sales of the games. Analogously, other factors like the pricing strategy of the games, the number and excellence of the concurrent launched games of the same sorts, and seasonal fluctuation in sales are needed to be considered to predict the sales. Only with the limited information provided, the prediction is impotent.

In sum, the arguer should provide far more information, assessed with rigorous reasoning, to have a prediction in sales. The conclusion based upon the given information is not convincing and can be misleading.

holdingUID: 2285054

In this article, the arguer suggests that the sales of Whirlwind video game are likely to increase after two years of decline. The arguer supports his argument by citing a survey of video game players, which conclude that the most important feature as responded for a video game is coincide with several video games just launched by the company, and that an extensive advertising campaign is underway. However, the critical elements in the reasoning are missed and several logical defects invalidate this argument.

To begin with, without information about why the sales of Whirlwind video game have declined over the past two years, the survey cited contains little information in predicting the change in sales, given the new introduction of several video games. If the Whirlwind video games experienced declined sales because of the altered public preference to video games, i.e. decreasing people were attracted to video games, rather than being caused by the bad performance in operation and product designs, then good products does not necessarily boost sales. For the survey to substantiate the claimed conclusion, the argument must provide evidence that the decline in sales was attributable to that the products in the last two years do not suit the consumers' taste. However, no such evidence is available in the article.

In addition, the argue (为动词，应改为argument 或arguer) unjustifiably to (去掉) assume that the new introduced video games with lifelike graphics, as the most important features the surveyed players think, will suffice to increase sales. Other factors have impact in the sales of video game. Firstly, as the most important feature, assuming the survey is representative to the market consumers, lifelike graphics may be necessary to a successful video game. However, it does not mean that these features are sufficient to guarantee good sales. Other features, like smooth graphics, ease to learn, nice interface may be necessary for a hot sold game. Lacking these features, albeit with lifelike graphics, may fail in the market (此句无主语？) . Secondly, as mentioned, the most up-to-date computers required to perform the video games with lifelike graphics. Perhaps there is only a small number or potential consumer (consumers) of the games can afford or own a most up-to-date computer, which would dramatically constrain the sales of the games. Analogously, other factors like the pricing strategy of the games, the number and excellence of the concurrent launched games of the same sorts, and seasonal fluctuation in sales are needed to be considered to predict the sales. Only with the limited information provided, the prediction is impotent.

In sum, the arguer should provide far more information, assessed with rigorous reasoning, to have a prediction in sales. The conclusion based upon the given information is not convincing and can be misleading.
攻击点有点少，但是第二个攻击点可以细化为两点，使文章更加充实、逻辑更强。