argument161【09年2月-3月GRE作文冲刺组】

_xtUID: 2599830

TOPIC: ARGUMENT161 - In a study of reading habits of Leeville citizens conducted by the University of Leeville, most respondents said they preferred literary classics as reading material. However, a follow-up study conducted by the same researchers found that the type of book most frequently checked out of each of the public libraries in Leeville was the mystery novel. Therefore, it can be concluded that the respondents in the first study had misrepresented their reading habits.
WORDS: 323          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2009-3-2 21:44:30
严重超时。。。。汗啊汗~~~~

The speaker cites the results of two surveys that conducted by a same group of reseachers about the reading preference of the citizens in Leeville. Since these two results seem to be discrepant with the other, the speaker comes to the conclusion that the respondents in the first study didn't tell the truth. However, scrutiny of the argument reveals that this conclusion rests on several fallacies render it unreliable as it stands.

The first problem with this argument is that the speaker fails to inform us the selection procedure of the first survey. As a matter of fact, it is entirely possible that most respondents to this survey were young females who were most likely in favour of literary classics but not sufficient to represent the overall population in Leeville as a whole. If it is the case, any conclusion drawn from the result of the first survey about all the citizens
is incredible. Even assuming that the respondents were chosen randomly, the speaker ignores the possibility that perhaps there was a best-selling literary classic book hit Leeville during the survey conducted but this fad would gradually fade with time.

What's more, the speaker assumes that the most popular books in public libraries is the most favourite reading materials in Leeville. However, no relevant evidence is provided to support this assumption. Perhaps, the readers in Leeville prefer to buy the literary classic books and other kind of reading materials as a collection while tend to borrow the mystery novels from libraries, or many readers don't go to the libraries to read books at all. After all, the public libraries are not the unique occasion where citizens can obtain books. Unless the speaker has ruled out these and other possibilities and provides sufficient evidence to substantiate that the most frequently checked books in public libraries are necessarily the most preferred books of the citizens in Leeville, the conclusion that the mystery novels are the most favourite reading material is the untenable.

The last but not least, even assuming the results of these two surveys are reliable, the conclusion in the argument is still questionable. The speaker fails to account for the period of time between these two survey. In fact, the preference in reading material of the citizens doesn't remain constant, but usually changes with time. Unless the surveys were conducted at the same time, the discrepancy in the the results is reasonable, therefore, the conclusion that the respondents involved in the first survey misrepresented their reading habits is unwarranted.

In summary, since the argument is flawed in several unsubstantiated assumptions, the conclusion drawn by the speaker is not reliable to me. To strengthen it, the speaker must assure me that the selection procedure of the first survey is randomly and the respondents are sufficiently to represent the overall population in Leeville and substantiate that the books which are most frequently checked out in public libraries can indicate the reading habits of the residents. The speaker also must assure me that the two survey are conducted at the same time. To better support the conclusion, the research should last sufficient long in case that there is an ephemeral fad in a certain kind of reading material is prevailing.

tanyujing2UID: 2600111

The speaker cites the results of two surveys that conducted by a same group of reseachers about the reading preference of the citizens in Leeville. Since these two results seem to be discrepant with the other, the speaker comes to the conclusion that the respondents in the first study didn't tell the truth. However, scrutiny of the argument reveals that this conclusion rests on several fallacies render it unreliable as it stands.

The first problem with this argument is that the speaker fails to inform us the selection procedure of the first survey. As a matter of fact, it is entirely possible that most respondents to this survey were young females who were most likely in favour of literary classics but not sufficient to represent the overall population in Leeville as a whole. If it is the case, any conclusion drawn from the result of the first survey about all the citizens
is incredible. Even assuming that the respondents were chosen randomly, the speaker ignores the possibility that perhaps there was a best-selling literary classic book hit Leeville during the survey conducted but this fad would gradually fade with time.我觉得可以先具体说SURVEY的不清晰之处，再说你的Possibilities~~

What's more, the speaker assumes that the most popular books in public libraries is the most favourite reading materials in Leeville. However, no relevant evidence is provided to support this assumption. Perhaps, the readers in Leeville prefer to buy the literary classic books and other kind of reading materials as a collection while tend to borrow the mystery novels from libraries, or many readers don't go to the libraries to read books at all. After all, the public libraries are not the unique occasion where citizens can obtain books. Unless the speaker has ruled out these and other possibilities and provides sufficient evidence to substantiate that the most frequently checked books in public libraries are necessarily the most preferred books of the citizens in Leeville, the conclusion that the mystery novels are the most favourite reading material is the untenable.

The last but not least, even assuming the results of these two surveys are reliable, the conclusion in the argument is still questionable. The speaker fails to account for the period of time between these two survey. In fact, the preference in reading material of the citizens doesn't remain constant, but usually changes with time. Unless the surveys were conducted at the same time, the discrepancy in the the results is reasonable, therefore, the conclusion that the respondents involved in the first survey misrepresented their reading habits is unwarranted.
这一段还可以说具体一点，why is the case reasonable?

In summary, since the argument is flawed in several unsubstantiated assumptions, the conclusion drawn by the speaker is not reliable to me. To strengthen it, the speaker must assure me that the selection procedure of the first survey is randomly and the respondents are sufficiently to represent the overall population in Leeville and substantiate that the books which are most frequently checked out in public libraries can indicate the reading habits of the residents. The speaker also must assure me that the two survey are conducted at the same time. To better support the conclusion, the research should last sufficient long in case that there is an ephemeral fad in a certain kind of reading material is prevailing.

恩，错误都找准了，而且分析地也很到位！继续加油，加快打字速度，不要像我一样。。。