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本帖最后由 zmjxf2008 于 2009-6-1 13:34 编辑
51The following appeared in a medical newsletter.
"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment."
1。对比实验中,其他重要条件不相同,主要指doctor
2。对比实验很多其他变量没有控制
3。从一小部分人的实验得出针对所有人的结论,太过概括。
The arguer tries to prove that patients diagnosed with muscle strain should take antibiotics to prevent secondary infections because antibiotics help reduce their recuperation time,citing the comparison study of two groups of patients, one of which took antibiotics regularly, the other took sugar pills instead.The argument by comparison seems valid,but when we probe into the details and uncontrolled virables in the process, the conclusion is more proofless than founded.
First,the arguer has overlooked other different factors in the process which is crucial to the result of comparison.For example,the first group are treated by a sports medicine specialist,while the second are treated by a general physician.This difference will to a large extent lead to the incorrectness of the result.As common sense tells, a specialist is alway more knowledgeable and more experienced in his field than a general doctor,so there is great chance that the specialist in sports medicine chooses more effective healing medicine than the physician apart from antibiotics, which will definitely make the first group recover sooner.And patients alway tend to trust a specialist than a general physician,for that matter,the former's advise are more likely to be followed than the latter,which can also lead to the declined recuperation time of the first group.
Second,some of the important virables,which are the premise of the argument,are not mentioned,such as the level of the patients' muscle strain,the ages of the patients,and the number of the patients in each group.There is large possibility that the average level of the muscle strain in each group are not equal,for example the second is much severer than the first,or the ages of the two groups are not in the same level,for example the second group are mostly in their sixties' or seventies',while the first group are youngster whose physical conditions are more advantageous to their recuperation than the old ones.And the number of the patients in each group must be the same if the arguer want to do effective comparison.If one group has more members than the other,it is more likely that it will take longer for all its patients to recover from the same extent of strain under the same condition.Unless all these virables are well controlled the same,the argument process will not be valid because of the lack of enough essential premises.
Even if the lacking factors listed above is controlled the same,the arguer commits the fallacy of hasty overgeneralization,by jumping to the conclusion of "all patients" with muscle strain should take antibiotics, from the experiment result of only a minority of people and an average effect of those people.As is said by the arguer"their recuperation time was ,on average,40 percent quicker",we cannot reclude that some patients in the first group recovered slower than typically expected,and taking antibiotics are not helpful for them.Even though all the patients in the first group recovered sooner than expected, there is no evidence that that part of people are well representative of all patients outside the experiment.Maybe the patients in the first group are all having light muscle strain,yet the antibiotics are no longer effective when used to deal with severe muscle strain problem.So a lot more research work need to be done and a variety of exceptions should be taken into account before the arguer conclude that antibiotics is advisable to all patients with muscle strain.
In sum,when an arguer is trying to make valid argument by comparison,all the factors except the subject factor should be well controlled the same,otherwise,the contrast of the result should not be attributable to the subject factor.And preliminary result of any typical experiment involving a small minority cannot be applied to all, unless there has been proved no exception.
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