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发表于 2009-6-18 20:09:44
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本帖最后由 xdjtf 于 2009-6-20 18:37 编辑
TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
The recommendation given by the author seems at first glance reasonable. The author prove the conclusion based on the following reasoning: first, in the last year, the domestic cheese had the best sales record; second, the feedback from the subscribers of a magazine indicates they favor domestic cheese; third, the imported cheese wastes the resource of the inventory, to improve the profits, therefore, the company should stop to continuously stock the imported cheese. However, as far as I am concerned, the inference is doubtful and untenable
In the first place, it is not convincing enough to conclude the domestic cheese is more favorable than the imported cheese solely in light of the sales record of the newest store, that is, since this company has a chain of cheese stores located throughout United States, the condition reflected by the newest store does not represent the overall selling situation of the cheese. Meanwhile, the author mentions that the cheddar cheese which is merely one sort of domestic cheese is the best-selling one; however, whether numerous other cheese produced at home are as favorable as the cheddar cheese is still dubious.
In the second place, the response of the subscribers shows they prefer the domestic cheese; however, this does not necessarily imply that they will not purchase the imported cheese at all, in other words, the author fails to prove the predominant strength of the domestic cheese, which means the demand of the consumers for the imported cheese may be still high and thus this kind of cheese will probably account for a large amount of the market.
Finally, in order to increase the profit of the company, the author suggests, considering the poor sales record and consumers’ feedback of the imported cheese, the company should mainly focus on the domestic cheese by means of reducing the stock of the imported cheese; notwithstanding, the author fails to substantiate the fact that the domestic cheese has higher profit rate which is weighted by the revenue against the expenses than its counterpart. The truth is, even if the domestic cheese has taken a majority of the cheese market, the imported cheese which probably has same income with far lower cost may be more profitable, and therefore, it is not persuasive to demonstrate the necessity of discontinuing to stock the imported cheese.
In sum, the condition revealed by the material is informative and the suggestion given by the author may be potentially helpful. But, unless the author can buttress the argument by pinpointing the direct causal relation between the evidence listed and the conclusion, an immature recommendation may be misleading and pose more loss.
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