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0910G 同主题写作第五期 Argument65 WDI小组 By xydeng
第一次考的时候只在考试前写过一篇A,三个月后重拾A,发现写起来还是挺纠结的,花了两个小时,因为没有限时,字数比较多,大家狠拍吧。
65. The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
The speaker argues that in order to improve profit of the chain of cheese stores, they should stop stocking many of varieties of imported cheese and focus mainly on domestic cheeses. To support his suggestion, the president of the chain of cheese stores provides the evidence that at the newest store the domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin are the five best-selling cheeses. In addition, he or she cites that a recent survey by Cheese of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. And another piece of evidence presented to support the argument is that the company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory. This argument seems somewhat convincing at first glance; however, careful security of this argument reveals that there are several fallacies.
In the first place, an essential assumption is that the last year’s report is accurate and indicates that domestic cheeses are more popular than imported cheeses. However, the speaker provides no sufficient evidence to support this crucial assumption. Firstly, this report just uncovers the case of last year, which cannot guarantee that people’s inclination of consuming domestic cheeses this year or in the following years. Secondly, this report merely records the situation of the newest store, which cannot represent all the stores’ cases. Maybe in other stores of the rest regions, people would prefer imported cheeses to domestic cheeses. Thirdly, the report just shows us consumer's strong inclination of choosing one particular style cheeses from Wisconsin. The sales success of this particular cheese absolutely can not ensure the potential success of selling other styles of Wisconsin cheeses nor the cheeses produced by other states. All in all, unless the speaker provides more information and evidence about consumers’ preference in all stores of all regions, it cannot
In the next place, the recent survey cited by the author is problematic. First of all, the arguer does not provide the information about the magazine—Cheeses of the World and how the survey is conducted. It is not guaranteed that the statistics obtained by the magazine is reliable and accurate. Lacking more information about the original amount of people who prefer domestic cheeses and the concrete amount of the increasing preference for domestic cheeses, it is impossible to assess that domestic cheeses dominate a majority of market share. And the survey is conducted by Cheeses of the World magazine which the arguer supplies no information about, may makes the results open to doubt. Whether the survey reflects the reality is uncertain. In addition, the survey just shows us the opinions of its subscribers which are not representative of the preference of overall population. It is very likely that other persons who are not the subscribers of the magazine and have not involved in the survey would prefer imported cheeses to domestic cheeses. Also, the arguer does not supply the concrete number of subscribers who participate in the survey, how many people respond and where the participators come from. It is highly possible that the participators are all those consumers who originally prefer to domestic cheeses all the time. It cannot represent the situation of all the residents. And another possibility is that the persons participating in the survey are from the same region, which is not representative of the situation of the entire country. Without ruling out these and other alternative possibilities, the arguer cannot recommend that domestic cheeses are preferred nationwide and concentrating primarily on domestic cheeses is profitable.
Last but not least, the speaker assumes that the company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory. Nevertheless, there is no guarantee that it is necessarily the case, and the arguer does not supply any evidence to confirm this assumption. It is not provided the information about the respective expense of stocking domestic cheeses and imported cheeses. It is irrational to recommend that the company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory. Additionally, many elements besides stocking affect the expenses of the company, such as, transport, the rent of storefronts. So it is not ensured that merely by limiting inventory the company can reduce expenses.
To sum up, this argument mentioned above is not as sound as the arguer expects. To strengthen the argument, he or she should provide more clear and sufficient evidence to substantiate that domestic cheeses are preferred in all the stores of the company, limiting inventory can reduce expense and stocking and selling domestic cheeses will improve profit.
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