美月 ARGUMENT 39更改

jessicamarineUID: 2595044

39.The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Humana
College.

"Last year the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree
programs at Omni University increased by 50%. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for
dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the
long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer
connections. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana
College has diminished and costs of maintaining buildings have risen.
Thus, to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget deficits 财政赤字at Humana College, we should initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni."

去年报名参加Omni大学远程教学系统的学生人数上升了50％。同年，Omni用于宿舍和教室的开支比前一年显著下降，很可能是因为远程教学通过互动电脑录像授课。比较而言，在过去三年中，Humana学院的报名人数下降了，而且用于房屋维护的费用上升。因此，为增加报名数量并解决Humana学院财政赤字问题，我们也应该开展并积极推广与Omni一样的远程教学系统。
原论点：
1 OMNI开支下降是因为远程人数增多（攻击点，A远程人数开始较于正常学生数量就非常少，即使增长50%也不多，B暗含正常学生减少，没来由C与前一年比较下降并不说明少，可能前一年房屋大修开支非常大，而此年开支较之多年平均偏高却低于去年D暗含 宿舍教室开支减少则赤字问题减轻，可能网络布设宣传费用很高）
2HUMANA赤字 的问题可以通过OMINI的方法来解决（攻击点，A 暗含赤字主要源于房屋维修支出增多，不一定 。B 即使A成立， 两者仍不具有可比性，a房屋维修不等同于宿舍教室开支，b远程教育适合omini却不一定适合HUMANA，两学校侧重不同，前者文类后者理工类，前者教学质量好，后者差。C即使B,未必解决赤字问题，赤字问题主要原因可能在其他，分进出来讲，如行政管理失误，过度投资，人员过多，改善教学质量等

Providing an imitation solution, the president's suggestion seemed reasonable at the first glance. However, further analysis reveals several logical problems, such as confusing concurrence with causal relationship, false analogy, etc .
To begin with, whether Omini's experience should be called as a success is unknown. The great decrease in house expenditure from the prior year does not necessarily mean that the housing cost last year was lower than the average. It is entirely possible that both the two years housing expenditure are higher than the average for some reason. If so, the cost decline makes no sense to the author's suggestion.
Even if the housing cost this year is lower than average, the president's assumption that the decrease should be attributed to the increase of long-distance students is still open to doubt. Maybe the base number of long-distance students is poorly small compared to the whole number, making the 50% increase make little influence on the students number, let alone cutting down the housing cost. （此段原与上段一段，考虑层次有递进，分开说为好，后期再斟酌）
Even assuming it's the increase of long-distance students that resulted in Omini's housing cost decline, we just cannot accept the optimistic analogy that the program will also help Humana increase its enrollment and solve the budget deficit problems.  The long-distance program's success for Omini does not necessarily mean that it's also a good choice for Humana.  Maybe, Omini has a good reputation while Humana is not. Or, the courses of Humana, which may need a lot lab practice, is not fit for a long-distance teaching. In any of these cases, we see little chance of Humana's success in long-distance degree program.


In fact, it is not wise to focus too closely on the long-distance teaching, instead we should pay more to why the enrollment students decreased and what we can do to solve that. For instance, better advertising and enrollment policy may contribute to a more significant increase on enrollment. Anyway, without ruling out these possibilities, the president just cannot convince me that Humana will win an increase in enrollment simply with a long-distance degree program.(此段似乎与下段有重复，暂时删除，再做斟酌）
Moreover, the president unwarrantedly assumes that the decrease in enrollment and increase in maintenance fee should be accused as the main cause for its budget deficit. However, this is not necessarily the case. Other negative factors such as improper policy, poor investment,imperfect management should also be taken into account. In a word, just imitating the long-distance degree program without a thorough analysis and effective measure eradicating the cause for the deficit, we see little chance for truly solving the deficit problem.
In summary, the president's suggestion is unconvincing. To better support it, the president must provide sufficient evidence that students enrolled in long-distance program make up a significant proportion and  the housing cost this year is lower than average due to that. To better evaluate it, we need more information about Humana, what it Is like at all and whether its courses are  fit for a long-distance degree program , etc. We would also need to know how much the enrollment and housing cost problems weighed in the deficit problems. Only in this way can we accept the president's suggestion.
攻击的很全面，有很多地方是我没有想到的，给我提供了灵感。而且层层的逻辑让步也很到位，很有说服力。小缺点还是有些的，主要就是在用词和选词上，但是无伤大雅。总体上很不错啦！