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发表于 2010-2-11 22:24:12 |显示全部楼层

TOPIC: ARGUMENT99 - The following appeared in a memo from the economic minister of the small country Paucia.
"Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year. To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops. Such high yields of rice will also improve our country's balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it."
WORDS: 417 TIME: 00:25:31 DATE: 2010-2-11 22:18:14
Merely based on the dubious assumption, the author concludes that if Paucia introduce the newly developed seed, the country's trading balance will be perfected. To support this, the author points out that the seed has made a 80 percent increasement in the neighouring country Abundia, and he is sure that this new variety of rice will inhance our farmers' income. At the first glance, this argument appeared to be somewhat convincing, but futher analysis reveals that it omits several logic problems.
A threshold problem for the argument is the reliability of the study about the increase in rice productivity inAbundia country. the author failed to provide us sufficient evidence on the causes of the increasement. He falsely assumed that no factor other than the developed seed is the only reason for the 80 percent increasement. It is entirely possible that last year's weather condition was ectremely fit for the cultivating of rice, or some new technology, such as mechanisation and irrigation technology had lend strong support to the rice prodection. What's more, we have to doubt the quality of these vatietied rice. Such a huge increasment is unusual, and as the basic food of our daily life, we must guarantee the quality at the first step.
Even assume the varieted rice has a high quality, the author's analysis falsely rely on the assumption that cultivation of rice in both Abundia and Paucia are similar. It is entirely possible that the condition of soil, water, temperature, humidity, or even the use of agriculture technology are different in these two places. So the author draws the conclusion too hastly that the seed can make Paucia's farmer more wealthy.
Finally, even assume the introduction of the seed can make Paucia's famers richer, it is unreasonable to say the high yield of rice will improve the country's balance of trade by enabling them to ecporting it. Commom sense tells us the trading balance is a comples issue contributed by the many factors--economic, political, military etc.--and definately cannot be simply affected by the exporting of rice, which is only a little aspect, but never a dominating one.
Judging from the analysis made above, the author failed to maintain his conclusion because he did not give us strong evidence to support. In order to make the argument more convincing, he would have to provide us about the effectiveness of the newly developed seeds, geological condition in these two areas, and the trading circmstances in Paucia. Then the argument will be more logically acceptable.