【Flyer杀G作文组】Jun 26th-Argument 118-By danielcwj

danielcwjUID: 2422859

TOPIC: ARGUMENT118 - The following appeared in a newsletter from a national astronomy association.
"Various sources are predicting higher-than-average temperatures across the country next winter, including in Sun City, the traditional location of our yearly winter conference. Higher winter temperatures are sure to result in higher-than-usual tourism in Sun City, a location already known for its attractive beaches and good weather. Hotels will have fewer rooms available, transportation will be more difficult to reserve, and public places such as parks and restaurants will be more crowded. These conditions are likely to significantly reduce attendance at the conference. We should therefore move our conference to a city less popular with winter tourists."




In this argument, the arguer get a conclusion that  they should move the winter conference toanother city less popular with winter tourists than that in Sun city.Tosubstantiate this conclusion, the arguer indicates that there will behigher-than-average temperatuers in Sun City ,in addition,it will lead to thecrowded traffic and less available rooms in hotel and less attendence in winterconference at the end .At the first glance,this argument seems to be some whatreasonable and logical,but after a further detail analysis,we find thisargument is unconvincing for some logic flaws.
First of all,thearguer unfair to asserts that there will be more tourists than usual in Suncity with higher temperature.The arguer can not establish the causalrelationship between the temperature and the tourism when he overlook someother factors that may aslo affect the decisions of people coming to here. Thetraffic is crowded, the higher price of commodities and terrible livingcondition of hotel,even though the temperature and weather in here is better,peoplestill do not come to Sun city .To make this argument more credible, the arguershould take  these factors into accountand ruling them out.
Furthermore,evenif there will be more tourists in Sun city ,the arguer does not providespecific data and information to convince that Sun city would not have theability to hold the winter conference again.May be the hotets in Sun citycompletely have enough rooms prepare for the increasing tourists and also theattending people of winter coference.To the transportation,all of the airlinecompany have enough flights and other methods of transportation also havestrong transport capability to ensure the transportation during the winter inSun city.The arguer should take a survey of current situation of hotels ,transportationand capacity of Sun city to support this conclusion in the argument.
At last,thearguer can not hasty concludes that we should change the city of holding thewinter conference even if the Sun city acctually dose not prepare wellnow.Because the Sun city totally can have some improvement before the wintercoming.They can build more hotels,restaurants ,squares and provide more flightsand take some other measures.Apprently changing the holding place is the onlyand the best choice when the arguer dose not take some other better choicesinto a comparison.
Overall,theargument lacks credibility because the information and evidences lended in tidoes not give a strong support to what the arguer maintains in it.To strengthenthis conclusion,the arguer have to provide sufficient evidences to prove morepeople than usual will come to Sun city in winter and lend more specificinformation to indicate that Sun city does not have the ability to ensure thegood attendence of the winter conference and changing the city is the lastchoice.