【Flyer杀G作文组】06月26日Argument118-By 潇

红绡UID: 2839171

ARGUMENT 118

118. The following appeared in a newsletter from a national astronomy association.
"Various sources are predicting higher-than-average temperatures(1) across the country next winter, including in Sun City(2), the traditional location of our yearly winter conference. Higher winter temperatures are sure to result in higher-than-usual tourism in Sun City, a location already known for its attractive beaches and good weather. Hotels will have fewer rooms available, transportation will be more difficult to reserve, and public places such as parks and restaurants will be more crowded(3). These conditions are likely to significantly reduce attendance at the conference(4). We should therefore move our conference to a city less popular with winter tourists(5)."
难度：★★★★


In this argument, the speaker recommends that next winter meeting of the national astronomy association should be migrated from Sun City to another city which would not receive too many visitors in winter in order to guarantee the attendance rate of the meeting. The arguer cites a vague data saying that various sources are predicting higher-than-average temperatures across the country next winter, including in Sun City and then higher winter temperatures are sure to result in higher-than-usual tourism in Sun City. Thus, the author concludes that higher temperature would lead to more prosperous tourism at the location which would bring about inconvenience for the winter conference and then disturb the presence of the meeting. However, the argument is flawed in several critical respects.

Firstly, various sources that the author cites is not exact which are predicting higher temperatures across the country winter. I cannot help to doubt that where the prediction comes from and if the predicting organizations are authoritative enough to assure the facticity/truth.

Secondly, the editorial does not offer any data which shows what the average temperature in the past years is and how many degrees centigrade the temperature in next winter is higher than before. If it rises up only 1 or 2centi degree compared with the average temperature, there is no influence for the Sun City because the little difference can be nearly ignored. If asked if the little change of temperature would result in increasing number of visitors who travel to the Sun City, I consider that everyone would answer no. Actually, the fuzzy concept could prove nothing but puzzle people.

Thirdly, the author does not offer any data illustrate how about the situation of tourism in winter in the Sun City ever. Maybe in winter, hardly anybody comes for travelling. If the tourism in Sun City is higher because of the higher temperatures, it is impossible that rooms in hotels cannot afford members of meeting to live, and the same to the transportation and public places. In the circumstances, it is much less disturbing normal attendance of conference even migrating place to produce the winter meeting.

Fourthly, the editor has not mentioned what the winter meeting is about or the scope even significance, so we cannot determine the attendance rate. If the conference is vital, people who need to attend it would arrive on time no matter they encounter any troubles. Therefore, the prediction can never affect the attendance of the meeting.

Finally, if it is true that these cases would probably lead to decrease of the attendance rate of the meeting, it is not saying that changing another city to hold the meeting is benefit for attending situation. Generally, it is more convenient for guests to attend a meeting in a familiar city. After all, the Sun City has been the traditional city of the yearly winter conference for a long time.

In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing logically as it stands. To strengthen it the author must provide the data mentioned above exactly such as average temperatures, extent of the temperature rising up and situation of tourism in the Sun City, and also show the authoritative explanation about the predictions from various sources. In addition, the author must elaborate the argument logically why they need to change a place to hold the conference to improve the attendance.

MaryWongUID: 2619999

修改
In this argument, the speaker recommends that next winter meeting of the national astronomy association should be migrated from（会议地点改变用迁移一词是否妥当，需要讨论） Sun City to another city which would not receive too many visitors in winter in order to guarantee the attendance rate of the meeting. The arguer cites a vague data saying that various sources are predicting higher-than-average temperatures across the country next winter, including in Sun City and then higher winter temperatures are sure to result in higher-than-usual tourism in Sun City. Thus, the author concludes that higher temperature would lead to more prosperous tourism at the location which would bring about inconvenience for the winter conference and then disturb the presence of the meeting. However, the argument is flawed in several critical respects.
Firstly, various sources that the author cites is（应are） not exact which are predicting higher temperatures across the country winter. I cannot help to doubt that where the prediction comes from and if the predicting organizations are authoritative enough to assure the facticity/truth（truth事实有必要确认吗，是否该用reliability等表达可靠性的词）.
Secondly, the editorial does not offer any data which shows what the average temperature in the past years is and how many degrees centigrade the temperature in next winter is higher than before. If it rises up only 1 or 2centi degree compared with the average temperature, there is no influence for the Sun City because the little difference can be nearly ignored. If asked if （if 重复使用过多）the little change of temperature would result in increasing number of visitors who travel to the Sun City, I consider that everyone would answer no. Actually, the fuzzy concept could prove nothing but puzzle people.
Thirdly, the author does not offer any data illustrate how about the situation of tourism in winter in the Sun City ever. Maybe in winter, hardly anybody comes for travelling. If the tourism in Sun City is higher because of the higher temperatures, it is impossible that rooms in hotels cannot afford members of meeting to live, and the same to the transportation and public places. In the circumstances, it is much less disturbing normal attendance of conference even migrating place to produce the winter meeting.
Fourthly, the editor has not mentioned what the winter meeting is about or the scope even significance, so we cannot determine the attendance rate. If the conference is vital, people who need to attend it would arrive on time no matter they encounter any troubles. Therefore, the prediction can never affect the attendance of the meeting.
Finally, if it is true that these cases would probably lead to decrease of the attendance rate of the meeting, it is not saying that changing another city to hold the meeting is benefit for attending situation. Generally, it is more convenient for guests to attend a meeting in a familiar city. After all, the Sun City has been the traditional city of the yearly winter conference for a long time.（此处加入作者个人观点，待商讨，可以改为假设形式）
In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing logically as it stands. To strengthen it the author must provide the data mentioned above exactly such as average temperatures, extent of the temperature rising up and situation of tourism in the Sun City, and also show the authoritative explanation about the predictions from various sources. In addition, the author must elaborate the argument logically why they need to change a place to hold the conference to improve the attendance.