AA第一高频，请赐教~~

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The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.

"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."


The conclusion of the passage is Nature's Way should build their next store in Plainsville. Though it seems relatively sound, it is discernible that, however, the argument is not sufficiently supported by the evidence given, and thus the conclusion does not adopt a strong logic. In order to substantiate the conclusion, the author exploits several premises as following, previous experience that the store can earn most money from residents who pay attention to healthy lifestyles, the sales of running shoes and exercise clothing reach a transcendent peak in Plainsville, the local fitness club have more members and participants taking training classes than ever before, and a program aiming at encouraging schoolchildren to take regular exercise is launched. Nevertheless, there are apparent evidences that the logic premises do not firmly support the conclusion. In all, the author commits three logical fallacies, post hoc, ergo propter hoc, faulty analogy and insufficient sample fallacy.

The fallacy of post hoc, ergo propter hoc is committed when the author base the decision of opening a new store in Plainsville on past experience. Though it is the fact that the Nature's Day earned most revenue in zones where healthy lifestyles is prevalent, it does not necessary mean that the same phenomenon will happen again as the time and location are changed. It is likely that in Plainsville, people are not as rich as the previous areas, so they will spend less money in purchasing health-products. Besides, people concerned with health in the new area may just focus on balancing their work and leisure life, adjusting the biologic clock to the best, which does not involves with concrete product or food.

When evaluating the sales of running shoes and sport clothing in Plainsville, the vice president of the Nature's Way makes a mistake of faulty analogy. He/she neglects the fact that, to some extent, the running shoes and exercise clothes have little connections with health food and other health-related products. The all-time high sales of sport footwear and suit can be resulted from the effective promotion effort made by local merchants. The price is much lower than before or valuable gifts are attached to the products may replace the thought that people are willing to buy health commodity.

Insufficient sample fallacy also enervates the argument. The rise of the number of members in the local fitness club and the training classes do not directly link to the fact that the club can make profit from them. Membership of the club can be inexpensive, and the cost of operation maintaining and salaries for professional trainers can be so high that the club is under debt rather than making income. Another error appears in the false expectation from the local "fitness for life" program. Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to take part in it, but this does not mean that they have to buy any products related to health food or else. Simple enhancing the strength of PE class or after class sports can reach the same goal of being healthy.

In short, the argument is far from enough to attest the conclusion that Nature's Way should open next new store in Plainsville. Evidence of the exact market size of Plainsville is needed to be specified in order for the argument to be persuasive. Further improvement could be made by ruling out alternative explanations that the increasing sales of sports suit and shoes are led by other possibilities rather than people's willingness of purchasing health product.