argument87 谢谢哦

abigredUID: 154473

呜呜呜。。。超时了，argument越来越差，郁闷
------摘要------
作者：寄托家园作文版普通用户     共用时间：30分46秒     432 words

------题目------
The following appeared in a memo to managers of Christine's, a chain of craft stores.
'Several major newspapers have recently run articles noting an increased interest in pottery. The number of potters in this country has risen by eighteen percent in the past five years, and pottery is particularly gaining popularity on college campuses. In order to take advantage of these trends, Christine's should immediately begin carrying a larger volume of pottery supplies. Since several of our stores have recently experienced a decrease in sales of painting supplies, all store managers should reallocate shelf space from the painting area for the display of pottery. Stores should display posters showing pottery that is designed to appeal to college-age individuals. These actions will undoubtedly increase our profits dramatically.'
------正文------
In this argument, the arguer concludes that the chain stores should replace the painting with pottery, because the sale of pottery is expected to be increasing. However, the argument is logically unsound in several aspects.

First of all, the arguer hastily comes to the conclusion that the demand of pottery is increasing, merely based on the articles of newspapers and the increased number of potters. In fact, people's growing interest in pottery does not necessarily link to the increased sales of pottery. It is quite possible that people just like to see or appreciate the art of pottery, other than to buy pottery personally. Furthermore, the relation between the number of potters and the sales of pottery is too vague to be convincing. Alternative factors can serve to explain the rising number of potters. Perhaps the productivity of potters decrease, whatever the reason might be. If this were the case, it will seriously undermine the validity of the conclusion. Thirdly, the assertion that the college students will the major buying potential of pottery is open to doubt. Although they might feel interested in pottery, they might not have enough money to buy them, especially when the economic status of the college students is taken into account. All of those scenarios discussed above will undoubtedly render the conclusion of the arguer untenable.

Secondly, merely judging from the decreased sales of several stores, the arguer concludes that every store should replace painting for pottery, which is not valid at all. It is quite possible that those several stores experienced a decreased of painting because of unsatisfactory quality or unwise marketing strategy, while other chain stores keep high profits in selling painting. Without enough information about all the chain stores, we can not accept the suggestion to replace painting for pottery.

For the final analysis, it is too presumptuous to think the suggestion will bring high profits to the company, as the arguer claims. Even if we were to concede that sales of pottery will increase because of growing popularity, we can not come to the conclusion that the profits of the chains stores will increase too. As common sense tells us, the function of profit contains the expense and revenue. What if the marketing such as advertising is expensive? If this is true, the expense on selling pottery will offset the profits. Moreover, without considering the market and the potential competitors, the conclusion is too hasty to be reasonable.

To sum up, the arguer's conclusion contains several logical flaws, which render the conclusion of ill-merit. The arguer has to convince us that the demand of pottery will increase and the chain stores will earn higher profits as he expects.

fishtutuUID: 199884

刚开始都会这样的,满满的就好了!:)