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The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a food-distribution company with food-storage warehouses in several cities.
'Recently we signed a contract with The Fly-Away Pest-Control Company to provide pest-control services at our fast-food warehouse in Palm City, but last month we discovered that over $20,000 worth of food there had been destroyed by pest damage. Meanwhile, the Buzzoff Pest-Control Company, which we have used for many years, continued to service our warehouse in Wintervale, and last month only $10,000 worth of the food stored there had been destroyed by pest damage. Even though the price charged by Fly-Away is considerably lower, our best means of saving money is to return to Buzzoff Company for all our pest-control services.'
------正文------
In this argument, the arguer claims that we should return to Buzzoff Company for all our pest-control services, although its price is higher than Fly-Away Pest-Control Company. The arguer's assertion is mainly based on a comparison between these two companies' performance in pest-control services. However, some logical errors found after a close scrutiny render the argument unconvincing.
First of all, the comparison, the main evidence provided by the arguer, is not comprehensive. Although last month in Palm City we had lost over $20,000 worth of food according to pest damage and the corresponding damage in Wintervale is only $10,000 worth of food, the arguer unfairly deduces this difference to the difference of two companies, without providing any detailed information about Palm City and Wintervale. In fact, it is entirely possible that the weather and other natural environmental factors are the really causes of this difference. For example, as we all know, more humid weather could facilitate the increase of pest. Hence, if Palm City's weather is more humid, it is unfair to accuse The Fly-Away Pest-Control Company for the greater damage. A wiser method is to exchange their warehouse, and then compare their performance.
In addition, even granted that the result of above comparison is justifiable, a month is a too short period to correctly appreciate a company's performance. From the argument, we know that Buzzoff has been employed for many years, which means that it would have more experience in protecting our warehouses. On the other hand, Fly-Away only recently began its services at warehouse in Palm City. Therefore, we have good reason to think that it is sheer experience but not skills and technology that lead to its priority in the comparison. If we give Fly-Away much time, after it has been familiar with our warehouses, its more advanced skills and technology would play their power and finally surpass the performance of Buzzoff.
What is more, the arguer cannot give us more precise number about two companies' price, but straightly declare that our best way to save money is to return to Buzzoff Company. Although we are informed that in the last month, the damage in Palm City is two times of that in Wintervale, whether the additional $10,000 damage is less than the difference between their prices is not very clear. When Fly-Away only require $10,000 every month but Buzzoff require $30,000, turning to Fly-Away would save much money although the corresponding damage is greater.
In sum, the arguer's assertion is unwarranted. In order to lend more support to this argument, the arguer should completely compare these two cities conditions, give more time to Fly-Away and provide more precise information about their prices.
写了半天,禁然没有上来,
我觉得这里漏了几个地方,
1. 是不是管理的粮食一样多,如果一个为另一个的N倍那就很难说了
2. false analogy 是不是只有这两公司个地方可以选择 ,有没有更好的
3. 全公司的粮食,只两个管理的公司都有分布吗?没有证据,要因地制宜
[ Last edited by MIMOSARL on 2005-8-11 at 16:16 ] |
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