Argument18 第一篇a狗 心里好没底儿阿

zhizhiUID: 2123761

谢谢大家 多提意见:)

Argument18
共用时间：28分48秒   465 words
------题目------
The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.
'In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago.'

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    The editorial fails to convince me that the Prunty County should restore the speed limit to 45 miles and emulate the Butler Country's safety traffic measures, because it suffers from a lot of unanswered questions and problems. Without more information provided and other possible factors considered that might contribute to the accident rate, the author's recommendation may be not sufficient and even backfired.

    In the first place, the author unfairly assumes that the new speed limit is useless in reducing the accident rate of the Prunty Country. The author fails to provide any information about the accident rate on the major country roads. Lacking such kind of information, it is difficult to justify whether the new speed limit is effective or not, since it is only conducted on all major country roads. Even if the accident rate on the major country roads merely decreases slightly, the author also fails to rule out other possible changes since the speed limit is lowered. It is much possible that the weather got much terrible and as a result undermine the effects of the new limit. Besides, there is no information concerning the severity of the accidents. One of the possible conditions is that the number of the serious accident has decreased significantly.  

     In the second place, the author fails to establish the causal relationship between the fact that there are 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County and the safety traffic measures to increase lane widths and resurface rough roads. It is possible that some other strategies were taken and there were some changes since the last five years in Butler County. It is possible that the government has strengthened the management of the traffic and paid more attention to educating the drivers. Maybe there is a decrease in the total number of the cars, bicycles and even walkers. All these other possible changes may contribute to the decrease in the accident rate. So it is ungrounded to assume that increasing lane width and resurfacing rough roads should be responsible for the decrease. Besides, the fact that the 55 mph speed limit is still kept can lend less support to the assumption that a lower speed limit is not necessary and ineffective. It is much possible that if the Butler County lower its speed limit, the accident rate may decrease much more significantly.

     Before I come to my conclusion, it is necessary for me to point out some other fallacies in this editorial. The "reported" accident mentioned in the editorial may be not representative of the total accident rate in Butler County. Besides, the author also fails to consider some possible differences between the two counties, and thus commits a false analogy.

   In sum, the author fails to demonstrate that his recommendation will be necessary or sufficient.

[ Last edited by zhizhi on 2005-8-12 at 19:16 ]

vivimathUID: 2127036

The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.
'In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago.'

------正文------
    The editorial fails to convince meus that the Prunty County should restore the speed limit to 45 miles and emulate the Butler Country's safety traffic measures, because it suffers from a lot of unanswered questions and problems. Without more information provided and other possible factors considered that might contribute to the accident rate, the author's recommendation may be not sufficient and even backfired.

    In the first place, the author unfairly assumes that the new speed limit is useless in reducing the accident rate of the Prunty Country. The author fails to provide any information about the accident rate on the major country roads. Lacking such kind of information, it is difficult to justify whether the new speed limit is effective or not, since it is only conducted on all major country roads. Even if the accident rate on the major country roads merely decreases slightly, the author also fails to rule out other possible changes sincecause the speed limit is lowered. It is muchmore possible that the weather got much terrible and as a result undermine the effects of the new limit. Besides, there is no information concerning the severity of the accidents. One of the possible conditions is that the number of the serious accident has decreased significantly.  

     In the second place, the author fails to establish the causal relationship between the fact that there are 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County and the safety traffic measures to increase lane widths and resurface rough roads. It is possible that some other strategies were taken and there were some changes since the last five years in Butler County. It is possible that the government has strengthened the management of the traffic and paid more attention to educating the drivers. Maybe there is a decrease in the total number of the cars, bicycles and even walkers. All these other possible changes may contribute to the decrease in the accident rate. So it is ungrounded to assume that increasing lane width and resurfacing rough roads should be responsible for the decrease. Besides, the fact that the 55 mph speed limit is still kept can lend less support to the assumption that a lower speed limit is not necessary and ineffective. It is much possible that if the Butler County lower its speed limit, the accident rate may decrease much more significantly.

     Before I come to my conclusion, it is necessary for me to point out some other fallacies in this editorial. The "reported" accident mentioned in the editorial may be not representative of the total accident rate in Butler County. Besides, the author also fails to consider some possible differences between the two counties, and thus commits a false analogy.

   In sum, the author fails to demonstrate that his recommendation will be necessary or sufficient感觉后面写的好一些，前面理由没有很充分