argument45 G89 现时之作。。。倒计时7天

mvpzhuangUID: 205051

Argument 45
The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
'Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.'

In the article, the author concludes that the decline in deer populations is contributed to the result of deer be unable to migrate across the frozen sea by the recent global warming trends. To support the conclusion, the author cites a survey done by local hunters and a report about the recent global warming trends. However, after close scrutiny, there are several flaws in the argument.

The threshold problem is whether the survey is credible.  There is no evidence to prove whether the number of hunter is significant and large enough to representative the overall situation. It is entirely possible that there are only one or two hunters there response the survey who does not know the all situation of the areas. Or perhaps, the areas the hunters who received the survey usually hunt was the mere place deer showed up at that time. Without any more credible and authentic surveys, the author cannot use the incredible evidence to support his conclusion.

Second, according to a report about recent global warming trends, the author hasty assumes that the warm trends also melted the ice in Arctic areas. However, for the average temperature in Arctic area is very low, nearly under zero every time, the warming trends cannot cause too much increase in temperature. Unless the temperature rises up above zero, the ice would not be melt, while it is not quite possible. Therefore, the warming trends may not melt ice in Arctic and the evidence that the sea ice in Arctic was melted is groundless.

Finally, even if the sea ice in Arctic areas had been melted; it cannot be the reason of the deer decline. There is no evidence that can prove the deer was dead because of unable to follow their age-old migration patterns to search food. It is entirely possible that, because of the warming trends, the deer did not need to move from one place to another but stay in a warmer place where enough plants have for them all the time. Whether to migrate or not is not important if they can find sufficient food to survive.

To sum up, the conclusion which based on the argument is untenable. To convince me, the author should give credible evidence that can prove the population of deer is really decreased because of the ice melted. Ant, we need more information about the environment in Arctic area after it became warmer.

现时之后，思维都不太清楚了。字数就不说了。大大减少。:mad:

[ Last edited by staralways on 2005-8-16 at 11:52 ]

chan1983UID: 166440

1调查的准确性，鹿是否真的减少？
2全球变暖的作用范围
3即使全球变暖真的影响鹿的生存，也不能排除其他因素。
In the article, the author concludes that the decline in deer populations is contributed to the result of deer be unable to migrate across the frozen sea by the recent global warming trends. To support the conclusion, the author cites a survey done by local hunters and a report about the recent global warming trends. However, after close scrutiny, there are several flaws in the argument.

The threshold problem is whether the survey is credible.  There is no evidence to prove whether the number of hunter is significant（这是什么意思呢？） and large enough to representative the overall situation. It is entirely possible that there are only one or two hunters there response the survey who does not know the all situation of the areas. Or perhaps, the areas the hunters who received the survey usually hunt was the mere place deer showed up at that time. Without any more credible and authentic surveys, the author cannot use the incredible evidence to support his conclusion.

Second, according to a report about recent global warming trends, the author hasty assumes that the warm trends also melted the ice in Arctic areas. However, for the average temperature in Arctic area is very low, nearly under zero every time, the warming trends cannot cause too much increase in temperature. Unless the temperature rises up above zero, the ice would not be melt, while it is not quite possible. Therefore, the warming trends may not melt ice in Arctic and the evidence that the sea ice in Arctic was melted is groundless.（这一点应该更加深入的分析一下）

Finally, even if the sea ice in Arctic areas had been melted; it cannot be the reason of the deer decline. There is no evidence that can prove the deer was (were)dead because of unable to follow their age-old migration patterns to search food. It is entirely possible that, because of the warming trends, the deer did not need to move from one place to another but stay in a warmer place where enough plants have for them all the time. Whether to migrate or not is not important if they can find sufficient food to survive.（可能是你时间的问题吧，应该再举一两个例子更好）

To sum up, the conclusion which based on the argument is untenable. To convince me, the author should give credible evidence that can prove the population of deer is really decreased because of the ice melted. Ant, we need more information about the environment in Arctic area after it became warmer.
Ps: 限时写得很不错了，攻击点也差不多都找出来，到考试时间多的话把段丰满一点就OK了，算是补偿我9号的食言，这里天如果有时间我会帮忙改的，没剩几天把以前的总结一下，加油嘎，哥们