Argument235 寄托4人组 8-29

bridgewalkerUID: 208595

Argument235: 430 words   40 minutes
The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.
'Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics.'
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In this argument, the speaker tries to convince us that the KNOW radio station should change its program to continuous news format. Although it seems reasonable at the first glance, a careful analysis reveals that its reasoning suffers from several critical flaws.

To begin with, there is no substantial evidence to prove that the KNOW will have fewer listeners in the future. Firstly, although the number of older people has increased dramatically, it does not follow that they have no possibility to become listeners of rock music. Rock music might be more likely favored by young people, while some old ones may also like it and are willing to listen to the KNOW's program. Secondly, although the total number of listeners has declined recently, it would be too hasty to conclude that the rock music program will never become popular again. It is quite possible that the resent declination would be replaced by sharp increase later. For instance, perhaps a larger part of the listeners consists of young students, and they have to cease listening to KNOW's music program facing the term examination. But after the examination, they would come back again, and the total number of listeners would surely increase.

Moreover, the report from local music stores cannot verify that less people would favor rock music. In the first place, the speaker fails to mention what kinds of recorded music are sold badly. It is quite possible that the rock music is not included. In the second place, even if records of rock music were not sold well from this report, the speaker has not demonstrated that whether the report comes from a interview of few music stores or a systematic survey covering the whole region.

In addition, local citizens' interest revealed by the survey is open to doubt. Firstly，the speaker fails to provide any detailed information about how the survey is conducted. In order to let the result be reliable, the speaker should prove that the survey really involves a large number of people; respondents are randomly chosen; the questions are not leading, etc. Secondly, the time when the survey was carried out might be inappropriate. Probably, it is the coming election that makes people be more interested in information about politics.

In sum, the argument is unpersuasive according to flaws listed above. To strengthen the reasoning, the speaker should prove that the total number of listeners will continue to decline and the report from local music stores is credible. Moreover, whether most of the citizens are really interested in political information should also be confirmed.

还有一点没有写，实在是时间紧迫！

meautoUID: 2116250

zhan!

meautoUID: 2116250

In this argument, the speaker tries to convince us that the KNOW radio station should change its program to continuous news format. Although it seems reasonable at the first glance, a careful analysis reveals that its reasoning suffers from several critical flaws.

To begin with, there is no substantial evidence to prove that the KNOW will have fewer listeners in the future. Firstly, although the number of older people has increased dramatically, it does not follow that they have no possibility to这里表达有点怪 become listeners of rock music. Rock music might be more likely favored by young people, while some old ones may also like it and are willing to listen to the KNOW's program.啰嗦了这里 Secondly, although the total number of listeners has declined recently, it would be too hasty to conclude that the rock music program will never become popular again. It is quite possible that the resent declination would be replaced by sharp increase later. For instance, perhaps a larger part of the listeners consists of young students, and they have to cease listening to KNOW's music program这个搬到上面young students的后面 facing the term examination. But after the examination, they would come back again, and the total number of listeners would surely increase.
补充下：
听众减少了，但是听音乐得人数可能增高了，需要更仔细的调查是哪部分听众减少了。搞不好正好就是听新闻的人少了，因为我们现有的新闻节目做的太差。
Moreover, the report from local music stores cannot verify that less people would favor rock music. In the first place, the speaker fails to mention what kinds of recorded music are sold badly. It is quite possible that the rock music is not included. In the second place, even if records of rock music were not sold well from this report, the speaker has not demonstrated that whether the report comes from aan interview of few music stores or a systematic survey covering the whole region.
攻击的时候，你这里列的原因最好换下顺序。
In addition, local citizens'neighboring cities我怀疑你审题的时候就把这个看漏了。。。。 interest revealed by the survey is open to doubt. Firstly，the speaker fails to provide any detailed information about how the survey is conducted. In order to let the result be reliable, the speaker should prove that the survey really involves a large number of people; respondents are randomly chosen; the questions are not leading, etc. Secondly, the time when the survey was carried out might be inappropriate. Probably, it is the coming election that makes people be more interested in information about politics.
对新闻的兴趣可能是短暂现象，放第一点说。SURVEY的问题没有错误类比来的明显：没有证据表明我们这里的人同样对新闻感兴趣。
In sum, the argument is unpersuasive according to flaws listed above. To strengthen the reasoning, the speaker should prove that the total number of listeners will continue to decline and the report from local music stores is credible. Moreover, whether most of the citizens are really interested in political information should also be confirmed.

还有一点没有写，实在是时间紧迫！

bridgewalkerUID: 208595

这道题审题有问题：

1.“the total number of our listeners” 中的"total number"
2.“neighboring cities”

killowindUID: 207262

不知道老人们也喜欢rock-and-roll可不可以，这也许可以导致最近老年听众的增加

meautoUID: 2116250

Originally posted by killowind at 2005-8-30 14:44
不知道老人们也喜欢rock-and-roll可不可以，这也许可以导致最近老年听众的增加

sure!