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- 声望
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题目
Argument65 The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
翻译: 很多年来我们的所有连锁店都储备了很多种类的国产奶酪和进口奶酪。然而去年,我们的最新店里五种销量最高的奶酪都是威斯康星出产的cheddar奶酪。而且,最近一次由Cheese of the World杂志所举行的调查显示,其订阅者对于国产奶酪的倾向性越来越高。由于我们公司可以通过限制库存来减少开支,在我们所有连锁店增加盈利的最好方式就是停止贮备很多进口奶酪而主要集中于国产奶酪。
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提纲
(1)只是在新店销量最高的是国产奶酪这个事实不能说明什么问题,因为不具有普遍性,销量高的原因也值得研究,有可能是新店有促销活动,这种国产奶酪价格比较低,或者新店是开在消费水平较低的地区。而且那是去年的统计,也许今年的统计结果已经不同。
(2) 杂志的调查结果不能作为证据。结果是否真实?有没有受到奶酪厂商的影响?调查人数、范围?等等。而且杂志订阅者不能代表全部消费者。
(3)停止销售一些进口奶酪,很可能会损失很多消费者,这样带来的损失有可能比通过限制库存节省的开支多,这样盈利反而会下降。
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字数: 461 words
时间: 提纲(5分钟)+正文(45分钟)= 50分钟
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正文
In this argument, the president of the chain of cheese stores suggests to improve profits in all of the cheese stores by discontinue stocking many of the imported cheese and concentrating mainly on domestic chesses. He gives out three facts to support his suggestion. The first one is that last year the five best-selling cheeses at the newest store were all domestic cheeses; the second one is that a recent survey conducted by Cheeses of the World magazine show its subscribers more and more prefer for domestic cheeses; the third one is that to limit inventory can reduce expenses. The president's evidences seem reasonable and enough, but after careful examinations, we can find out several flaws as follows.
First of all, the statistical result of new store cannot prove anything because it does not have universality. Moreover, the reason for good-selling of Wisconsin cheddar cheeses also need to be considered seriously. It is highly possible that the newest store or the manufacturer of Wisconsin cheddar cheeses performed some sales promotions activities and those kinds of cheeses were sold at very low price, which resulted in high sales. It is also likely that the newest store locates at a relative poor area where most people can only afford cheap domestic cheeses. In addition, the statistical result is last year's result and this year the result maybe have changed greatly. Thus, the first fact the president depends on is untenable.
Secondly, the magazine's survey is also doubtable. The survey is not conducted by authoritative organization, so we have to suspect if the survey result is true and whether the survey has been influenced by the manufacturers. Besides, the information about the survey, such as the number of surveyed people, the number or respondents, the survey scale, and etc, is not provided. What is more, the magazine's subscribers cannot represent all consumers because the subscribers maybe very few or mainly from similar estate. Consequently, the second fact also cannot be convincing evidence.
Finally, the president only considered that to limit inventory can save expenses and failed to regard the possible result that to stop selling many imported cheeses also will loss many customers, which will cause the loss of incomes. One possible case is that the lost incomes are even more that the save expenses, thus the profits even will reduce.
To sum up, the president's suggestion is hard to persuade others because all the three evidences he provides are doubtful and baseless. To make his suggestion more convincing, he has to take the facets discussed above into account, that is, to study the genuine reason for the new store's statistical result, to give out more information about the magazine's survey, and to prove that to stop selling imported cheese can really improve profits. |
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