argument59 （正在练习如何减少模板痕迹，请大家帮忙看看，谢谢）

Archer1123UID: 206148

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59The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.
"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity—that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun."
[翻译]
根据现有的医疗记录，过去300年中最严重的六次世界范围的流感大流行分别发生于1729，1830，1918，1957和1977。这些都是太阳黑子活动剧烈的年份，即：地球所接收的太阳能比平常年份多的多的年份。因此，那些特别易患流感的人群应该避免长时间暴露于日光下。
1.        无证据表明太阳黑子的剧烈活动和流感有直接关系
2.        即使有关系，无证据表明日光是流感的主要原因
3.        建议的模糊性

The author recommends that people who catch flu easily should shun long-time exposure in sun based on some medical records and information on heavy sunspot activity. The argument seems well-presented, but it suffers from three logical flaws at least.

To begin with, the author does not provide any solid evidence to testify that there is direct and inevitable relationship between worldwide flu and heavy sunspot activity. Since available medical documents only contain last 300years, perhaps several worse flu covering all over the world than recorded happened in the years with slight sunspot activity. Moreover, how is the condition of flu among people in other years with heavy sunspot activity except the six times mentioned? It is also possible that global flu seldom broke out even if the sunspot activity was pretty violent. If so, readers tend to accept that the universal flu merely coincided with heavy sunspot activity. Therefore, there is necessary connection between flu and sunspot activity and people should not be away from sunlight for the fear of catching flu.  

In addition, even if the heavy sunspot activity is related to global flu, the author fail to convince us that the root cause of flu is the sunlight which contain more energy than normal condition. There are numerous alternative possibilities to cause worldwide flu, such as weather changing sharply, the temperature fluctuating frequently or the decrease of acquired immunity among people. If the author cannot rule out aforementioned likelihood, readers have sound reason to doubt the credibility of author’s deduction that sunlight in years with heavy sunspot activity is the primary reason of catching flu.  

Last but least, even though readers concede author’s analysis, the recommendation is too vague to be adopted. Which sorts of people should be classified into those who at particular risk for the flu? The child, the old, pregnant women or some else are included in the scope? Further more, the author does not give an explicit or exact definition of “prolonged”? In a not dissimilar way, readers will be confused how long time could be called “prolonged”, over two hours per day or ten hours every week. Such a equivocal suggestion is hard to be accepted by people.   

In sum, based on what has discussed above, it is obvious that the recommendation is invalid and misleading. In order to make it more believable, the author should establish the necessary relationship between heavy sunspot activity and global flu and prove that the exposure in sunlight is the root cause of flu during those years, as well as rendering the practical suggestion to readers.

frankkuUID: 2136240

The author recommends that people who catch flu easily should shun long-time exposure in sun based on some medical records and information on heavy sunspot activity. The argument seems well-presented, but it suffers from three logical flaws at least.

To begin with, the author does not provide any solid evidence to testify that there is direct and inevitable relationship between worldwide flu and heavy sunspot activity. Since available medical documents only contain last 300years, perhaps several worse flu covering all over the world than recorded happened in the years with slight sunspot activity. Moreover, how is the condition of flu among people in other years with heavy sunspot activity except the six times mentioned? It is also possible that global flu seldom broke out even if the sunspot activity was pretty violent. If so, readers tend to accept that the universal flu merely coincided with heavy sunspot activity. Therefore, there is necessary connection between flu and sunspot activity and people should not be away from sunlight for the fear of catching flu.  

In addition, even if the heavy sunspot activity is related to global flu, the author fail to convince us that the root cause of flu is the sunlight which contain more energy than normal condition. There are numerous alternative possibilities to cause worldwide flu, such as weather changing sharply, the temperature fluctuating frequently or the decrease of acquired immunity among people. If the author cannot rule out aforementioned likelihood, readers have sound reason to doubt the credibility of author’s deduction that sunlight in years with heavy sunspot activity is the primary reason of catching flu.  

Last but NOT least, even though readers concede author’s analysis, the recommendation is too vague to be adopted. Which sorts of people should be classified into those who at particular risk for the flu? The children, the old（elder）, pregnant women(此处应该三个平行一直) or some else are included in the scope? Further more, the author does not give an explicit or exact definition of “prolonged”? In a not dissimilar way, readers will be confused how long time could be called “prolonged”, over two hours per day or ten hours every week. Such a equivocal suggestion is hard to be accepted by people.   
In sum, based on what has discussed above, it is obvious that the recommendation is invalid and misleading. In order to make it more believable, the author should establish the necessary relationship between heavy sunspot activity and global flu and prove that the exposure in sunlight is the root cause of flu during those years, as well as rendering the practical suggestion to readers.再问个问题啊，比如说除去一些结构上的模版，那些实质的论述文字，比如说修饰词，你是怎么写出的呢？因为有些次对我来说都很陌生，看到你的就让我有些羡慕不已啦。

[ 本帖最后由 frankku 于 2006-2-6 11:02 编辑 ]