Argument73 第二十九次作业 & 同主题写作第四期，留链互拍吧~~

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题目
Argument73 The following appeared in a memo from a manager of a car dealership.

"Ten years ago, long-term car leasing became available in our country of Mohilia as an alternative to outright car ownership, and leasing has steadily risen in popularity. For each of the last five years, the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars. The average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years; hence, if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year, it is likely that the majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars. Therefore, we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them."

翻译：
10年前，长期汽车租赁在我们Mohilia国家出现，成为对于汽车完全所有权的一种补充，这种租赁业务的受欢迎度也逐渐增加。过去五年的每一年中，租赁新车的人数都超过了买新车的人数。Mohilia的汽车平均使用时间为6年；因此，如果新车租赁在今年又一次超过购买，有可能大多数驾驶员将会开租来的车而不是私人拥有的车。因此，我们应该把业务重点从出售车辆转向租赁车辆。

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提纲
（1）虽然汽车的平均使用时间有6年，但长期汽车租赁的“长期”比较模糊，有可能不到一年，那么很多驾驶员可能一年去重新租赁新车好几次，所以可能实际上开租来的车的驾驶员并不如开私人拥有车的人多。
（2）即使开租来的车的驾驶员真的比开私人拥有车的人多，并不知道具体超过多少，也许只是略微超过。而且也不知道租车更受欢迎的原因，有可能是最近几年经济不好，人们买不起新车，但目前已经有经济转好的迹象或者促进经济的政策出台，那么可能更多的人在明年和以后选择买车。
（3）忽略一个事实：即使驾驶员是从某些租赁公司租赁汽车，这些租赁公司的汽车也是需要购买的，那么对于汽车代理商，卖给单个驾驶员，还是卖给租赁公司要的都是新车，这样对销售没什么影响，所以不一定需要转变业务重点。

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字数：505 words
时间：40分钟
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正文
In this argument, the arguer's suggestion to change the focus of the car dealership's business from selling cars to leasing them lacks of enough deep consideration and then suffers several serious flaws as following.

First of all, even if the assumption that new car leases again outnumber purchases this year is true, the arguer still fails to make the conclusion that more drivers will be driving leased cars rather than individually owned cars. Although the average age of cars driven in Mohilia is six years, the arguer does not point out clearly how long on earth the 'long-term car leasing' drivers rent the car averagely. It is possible that the time is less than 1 year, in other words, it is possible that most drivers re-rent a new car several times a year. However, it is less likely that people buy a new car several times a year, except those energumen. Thus, even if the number of people leasing new cars has surpassed the number buying new cars, the drivers of the former case are less than those of the later case at any time slice.

Secondly, granted that leasing cars is more popular than selling cars and the drivers driving leased are more than the drivers driving owned car, the arguer does not show the degree of popularity for leasing. One possibility is that the drivers driving leased are only surpassed the drivers driving owned car slightly, which means the renting market is nearly same popular with the selling market. In addition, the arguer also does not provide the reason for the tread that renting car is more welcomed. Maybe it is because that the economy of Mohilia is depressed during recent years and few people can afford a new car, so they have to choose to rent. But the economy has began to recover and government also makes some policies to help the improvement of economy, so it is totally possible that people will purchase new cars rather than rent them in the following years.

Last but not the least, the arguer overlooks a very important fact, that is, whether leasing cars or purchasing cars is more popular, those cars all should be purchased from car dealership. As for a car dealership, whether for individuals or car-renting companies, it sells new cars to both of them. Then, the total need of cars in Mohilia maybe remains constant and the renting or purchasing markets have little influence to the car dealership. In turn, there will be unnecessary for the car dealership to change the business focus. In addition, to change focus from selling cars to renting cars will have to suffer some risks.

To sum up, the arguer is too cursory to make the suggestion only according to the superficies. To make his suggestion more convincing, he has to take the facets discussed above into account, that is, to analyze the reasons for the trend of car market and to confirm whether it is necessary for the car dealership the change its business focus.

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参考资料
https://bbs.gter.net/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=404851

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