argument20 自己觉得比较难写得一篇~~

bunnymz2005UID: 2146758

TOPIC：ARGUMENT 20 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
提纲：
1 人数增加不代表事故增加。可能人们安全意识比较高，而且人和行人是不同的两个概念。
2 就算事故真的增加了，减少Moped就有效么？一方面，T地减少不一定是因为Moped，可能去年天气比较好，是个巧合呢。或者路比以前好了。另一方面，就算在T有效，B跟T不同（这点没想出来理由
3 就算在B也有效，也不一定通过50减到20就能达到事故下降50%的效果。可能B地市场根本就是供大于求，见少了根本没有影响。可能减到10会有效，如果有的话。
Prior to choosing to limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 to30 per day for the purpose of reducing the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the evidence presented in this argument requires an in-depth scrutiny from several aspects, by doing which, I find that the author seems to have unduly relied on a series of unwarranted evidence as well as the experience of Torseau and thus draws a conclusion that is fundamentally flawed.

The threshold problem with this argument is its establishment of problematic correlation between the number of population and accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. It is at least possible that people in Balmer are quiet careful and safety conscious, or perhaps the government have held some seminars for free in order to cultivate people to be responsible whenever in the street. Moreover, the author also fails to differentiate the population and pedestrians. As mentioned in the argument, it is a time during summer. Accordingly, we have good reasons to assume that the summer in Balmer is so hot that people tend to stay at home with air-conditioners rather than go out basking in the sun. Since the author fails to respond to these concerns, the assumption upon which the argument based is untenable.

In addition, even assuming that the number of accidents happening between mopeds and pedestrians do augment, it would be nevertheless perfunctory to assume that the accidents would surely decline merely by reducing the number of mopeds rented. For one thing, the author provides no evidence that reduction in Torseau should be attributable to the measure. Perhaps during last year, the weather condition was very good in Torseau, or perhaps the roads were also improved and repaired by the town coucil of Torseau, which at length lead to the reduction of accidents. For another thing, even if the measure do work in Torseau, the author still fails to recognize the inherent differences between Balmer and Torseau such as local topographic condition, culture, customs, mores, which may even sever to stifle the enforcement of new measure. Without taking into consideration these possibilities, the author cannot justify the authenticity and credibility of his assertion.

Before coming to finish my analysis, we might as well turn our focus to the author's conclusion. Even if we concede that the measure would also work in Balmer, there is hardly any evidence provided that the town council of Balmer is sure to attain 50 percent reduction in moped accidents just by eliminating the mopeds from 50 to 30 per day in each company. There is good chance that people in Balmer tend to rent only 100 mopeds per day in all, which indicates that the supply of moped still outnumbers the demand even after adjusting the number of mopeds rented from 300 to 180 in total each day. In that case, the measure would be nothing but insignificant. Maybe eliminate the number of mopeds rented by each of the six companies from 50 to 10 would have effect, if any.

To sum up, the argument is weakened by flaws discussed above. To better evaluate it, much work is needed before drawing a conclusion.

lawrence1984UID: 178326

马上发上来 。

lawrence1984UID: 178326

TOPIC：ARGUMENT 20 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
提纲：
1 人数增加不代表事故增加。可能人们安全意识比较高，而且人和行人是不同的两个概念。
2 就算事故真的增加了，减少Moped就有效么？一方面，T地减少不一定是因为Moped（的减少这个措施），可能去年天气比较好，是个巧合呢。或者路比以前好了。另一方面，就算在T有效，B跟T不同（这点没想出来理由，可能在T地骑助力车的人很少，大部分人开车，不走人行横道，这样限制可能有效，但是在B地由于经济不发达，大部分人都只能骑足力车，这样一来，同样的限制未必有效。）
3 就算在B也有效，也不一定通过50减到20就能达到事故下降50%的效果。可能B地市场根本就是供大于求，见少了根本没有影响。可能减到10会有效，如果有的话。
Prior to choosing to limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 to30 per day for the purpose of reducing the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the evidence presented in this argument requires an in-depth scrutiny from several aspects, by doing which, I find that the author seems to have unduly relied on a series of unwarranted evidence as well as the experience of Torseau and thus draws a conclusion that is fundamentally flawed.（开头很好。）

The threshold problem with this argument is its establishment of problematic correlation between the number of population and accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians.（这里缺少一句话：More population hardly equals more accidents.） It is at least（这个用法很少见哦！） possible that people in Balmer are quiet careful and safety conscious, or perhaps the government have held some seminars for free in order to cultivate people to be responsible whenever in the street.（加一句：Therefore, the increase in population could lend no strong support to the premise that more accidents will be contributed to .我的句子写的很糙，你润色吧!）Moreover, the author also fails to differentiate the population and pedestrians. As mentioned in the argument, it is a time during summer. Accordingly, we have good reasons to assume that the summer in Balmer is so hot that people tend to stay at home with air-conditioners rather than go out basking in the sun.( wonderful!)  Since the author fails to respond to these concerns, the assumption upon which the argument based is untenable.( 这段在整体感觉上一点不完整，我认为第二句话应该补上，不知道你觉得怎样，这样后面的驳斥不会显得太突然，可能你认为第一句就足够了吧！)
In addition, even assuming that the number of accidents happening between mopeds and pedestrians do augment, it would be nevertheless perfunctory to assume that the accidents would surely decline merely by reducing the number of mopeds rented. For one thing, the author provides no evidence that reduction in Torseau should be attributable to the measure. Perhaps during last year, the weather condition was very good in Torseau, or perhaps the roads were also improved and repaired by the town coucil of Torseau, which at length lead to the reduction of accidents. For another thing, even if the measure do work in Torseau, the author still fails to recognize the inherent differences between Balmer and Torseau such as local topographic condition, culture, customs, mores, which may even sever to stifle the enforcement of new measure.( 这点写到这里虽然显得不是很具体 ，但是也还行。) Without taking into consideration these possibilities, the author cannot justify the authenticity and credibility of his assertion.

Before coming to finish my analysis, we might as well turn our focus to the author's conclusion. Even if we concede that the measure would also work in Balmer, there is hardly any evidence provided that the town council of Balmer is sure to attain 50 percent reduction in moped accidents just by eliminating the mopeds from 50 to 30 per day in each company. There is good chance that people in Balmer tend to rent only 100 mopeds per day in all, which indicates that the supply of moped still outnumbers the demand even after adjusting the number of mopeds rented from 300 to 180 in total each day. In that case, the measure would be nothing but insignificant. Maybe eliminate the number of mopeds rented by each of the six companies from 50 to 10 would have effect, if any.（很好的句子，其中数据我就没有计算了，相信你也不回算错了。这里对于数据的驳斥可以形成你自己的风格。）
To sum up, the argument is weakened by flaws discussed above. To better evaluate it, much work is needed before drawing a conclusion.
结尾居然这样简单，我第一次见到，很新颖而且有力的结尾，学习中……

[ 本帖最后由 lawrence1984 于 2006-2-16 11:04 编辑 ]