argument99 新的种子 二月高频哦~~~

bunnymz2005UID：2146758

TOPIC：ARGUMENT 99 - The following appeared in a memo from the economic minister of the small country Paucia.

"Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year. To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops. Such high yields of rice will also improve our country's balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it."
WORDS：570          TIME：0:29:46          DATE：2006-2-19

Prior to choosing to employ the newly developed variety of seed for the purpose of increasing the income of farmer and also improving Paucia's balance of trade, the evidence presented in this argument requires an in-depth scrutiny from several aspects, by doing which, I find the author seems to have unduly relied on the experience of country Abundia and thus draw a conclusion that is fundamentally flawed.

The threshold problem with this argument is its establishment of unwarranted causal relationship between the newly developed variety of seed and the output of the rice. In fact, common sense tells us that the output of the rice depends on several dimensions, such as the land, fertilizer, growing skills, and so forth. In that case, it is entirely possible that the land in Paucia is quite fertilized and suitable for the growing of the rice. It is also possible that people in Paucia possess expert skills, which at length determine the high production of rice in Paucia. Since the author fails to respond to these concerns, the assumption that the increase production of rice in Paucia is due to the new seed cannot convince me at all.

In addition, the author also illogically presumes that Paucia would also produce more rice merely based on the experience of Abundia, which, however, may not be the case either. The author fails to recognize the inherent differences between the two countries. Perhaps Abundia is a country that always has an excellent weather condition which is suitable for growing rice which Paucia may be a country that frequently disturbed or attacked by storms or hurricanes. If true, it will refute the author's assumption that the new seed would also be useful in Paucia.

Furthermore, even if we concede that the new seed also has effect in Paucia, it would nevertheless perfunctory to conclude that the farmers in Paucia would expect a increase in their income. The author fails to account for other possible factors which also influence the money earned by farmers. Such alternatives may embrace that price of rice and also the cost of planting the newly developed variety of seed. As we all know, regardless of international trade, the more one commodity is supplied, the lower its price would be. For that matter, it is high possible that the income of farmer would decrease for the sharply reduction of price, although the output may be slightly higher than before. Moreover, the author provides no information about the cost of new machines, appliances, tools newly put into use in order to plant the new seeds. Hence, with out taking into consideration these possibilities, the authenticity and credibility of the author's assertion cannot be justified.

Before coming to finish my analysis, we might as well turn our focus to the conclusion which unfairly suggests that high yields of rice will also improve Paucia's balance of trade by exporting it. However, the point is that we are not informed of any information about the reason why the country is imbalance in trading with other countries. In fact, there is a good chance that the rooted problem is that Paucia has a weak industry system which is inferior to other countries. If so, maybe Paucia had better to consider this problem at first. In addition, the increase of rice does not necessarily mean it can be exported. Perhaps the other countries do not need rice at all or they just dislike this new kind of rice and thus not purchase it. Accordingly any of these scenarios would inevitably undermine the author’s conclusion.

To sum up, the argument is weakened by the flaws discussed above. Much work is needed before drawing a convincible conclusion; otherwise, the argument would be unfounded.

本来能写得更多的，结果写到body4，打出来的字完全滞后了，还都粘着出来~~~

lawrence1984UID：178326

argument99 新的种子 二月高频哦~~~

TOPIC：ARGUMENT 99 - The following appeared in a memo from the economic minister of the small country Paucia.

"Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year. To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops. Such high yields of rice will also improve our country's balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it."
WORDS：570          TIME：0:29:46          DATE：2006-2-19

Prior to choosing to employ the newly developed variety of seed for the purpose of increasing the income of farmer and also improving Paucia's balance of trade, the evidence presented in this argument requires an in-depth scrutiny from several aspects, by doing which, I find the author seems to have unduly relied on the experience of country Abundia and thus draw a conclusion that is fundamentally flawed. （开头不多说了。）

The threshold problem with this argument is its establishment of unwarranted causal relationship between the newly developed variety of seed and the output of the rice. In fact, common sense tells us that the output of the rice depends on several dimensions, such as the land, fertilizer, growing skills, and so forth. In that case, it is entirely possible that the land in Paucia is quite fertilized and suitable for the growing of the rice. It is also possible that people in Paucia possess expert skills, which at length determine the high production of rice in Paucia. Since the author fails to respond to these concerns, the assumption that the increase production of rice in Paucia is due to the new seed cannot convince me at all.（这段驳斥在总体上没问题，但是我觉得先对于80%这个数字进行驳斥会使你的驳斥更完整。当然，这样已经很好了！！）

In addition, the author also illogically presumes that Paucia would also produce more rice merely based on the experience of Abundia, which, however, may not be the case either. The author fails to recognize the inherent differences between the two countries. Perhaps Abundia is a country that always has an excellent weather condition which is suitable for growing rice which Paucia may be a country that frequently disturbed or attacked by storms or hurricanes. If true, it will refute the author's assumption that the new seed would also be useful in Paucia.（按照你的思路，这段的驳斥也没有问题 ，可以多说些原因，仅说天气还不够细致嘛。）

Furthermore, even if we concede that the new seed also has effect in Paucia, it would nevertheless perfunctory to conclude that the farmers in Paucia would expect a（an） increase in their income. The author fails to account for other possible factors which also influence the money earned by farmers. Such alternatives may embrace that price of rice and also the cost of planting the newly developed variety of seed. As we all know, regardless of international trade, the more one commodity is supplied, the lower its price would be.（经济原因，这点我是外行了。） For that matter, it is high possible that the income of farmer would decrease for the sharply reduction of price, although the output may be slightly higher than before. Moreover, the author provides no information about the cost of new machines, appliances, tools newly put into use in order to plant the new seeds. Hence, with out taking into consideration these possibilities, the authenticity and credibility of the author's assertion cannot be justified.（这段写得很全面！）

Before coming to finish my analysis, we might as well turn our focus to the conclusion which unfairly suggests that high yields of rice will also improve Paucia's balance of trade by exporting it. However, the point is that we are not informed of any information about the reason why the country is imbalance in trading with other countries. In fact, there is a good chance that the rooted problem is that Paucia has a weak industry system which is inferior to other countries. If so, maybe Paucia had better to consider this problem at first.（还是经济原因，呵呵，思维角度不一样，由专业优势！） In addition, the increase of rice does not necessarily mean it can be exported. Perhaps the other countries do not need rice at all or they just dislike this new kind of rice and thus not purchase it. Accordingly any of these scenarios would inevitably undermine the author’s conclusion.

To sum up, the argument is weakened by the flaws discussed above. Much work is needed before drawing a convincible conclusion; otherwise, the argument would be unfounded.

本来能写得更多的，结果写到body4，打出来的字完全滞后了，还都粘着出来~~~
很好的文章了，这篇文章的驳斥点太多了，不一一列举了，按照你的思路已经很完美了。加油！！

[ 本帖最后由 lawrence1984 于 2006-2-19 12:14 编辑 ]