Argument235 临考，期待互拍，谢谢~~

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题目
Argument235 The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.

"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics."  

翻译：
若干因素表明KNOW电台应该把它的节目从摇滚乐转成连续的新闻节目。举例来说，我们覆盖范围内的老年人数量显著增加，而总的听众数量最近减少了。而且，我们地区音像店中录制音乐的销量下降。最后，邻近城市的连续新闻节目非常成功，最近大选前组织的一次调查显示，本地居民对于及时的政治报导很感兴趣。

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提纲
（1）老年人不一定不喜欢摇滚音乐，总的听众数量减少的原因有可能是因为最近节目质量变差。
（2）录制音乐数量下降有可能是因为人们可以从其他渠道听到音乐，比如网络。
（3）居民对政治报道感兴趣不一定就对摇滚音乐不感兴趣，而且有可能本地已经有新闻电台。

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字数：412 words
时间：35分钟
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正文
In this argument, the arguer's suggestion that KNOW radio station should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format suffers several serious flaws as following.

First of all, the arguer fails to make the assumption that older people do not like rock-and-roll music and does not provide the reason for the decline of listeners. Although the number of older people in the area has increased dramatically, but it is totally possible that most of them are fans of rock-and-roll music, thus the potential listeners are even increasing. As for the decline of audiences, maybe recently the quality of radio programs becomes more and more poor, or the programs are too bald and lack of changes, then lost many listeners. Thus what to do should to improve the quality of programs and make them more attracting rather than to shift to news radio.

Secondly, the arguer is too hasty to conclude that people do not prefer rock-and-roll music any longer just according to the decreased sales of recorded music. Actually the sales of recorded music do not have causal relation with the popularity of rock-and-roll music. It is likely that recently people find other methods to attain such music, such as downloading from Internet, which is cheaper and more convenient. It is also likely that the price of music records are raised recently, then less people purchase them. So this phenomenon also cannot be strong evidence.

Last but not the least, the arguer wrongly assumes that people will give up to listen rock-and-roll music only because they show more interests on political news. On the one hand, people can both care about politics and listen to music, and in fact the two activities do not conflict each other. In addition, maybe the citizens would more prefer to read political news from newspaper or television rather than from radio. On the other hand, it is possible that there have been a successful news station in this area, thus to transfer from music station to news station not only brings competition between the two stations, but also may be a waste of resources.

To sum up, the arguer is too cursory to make the suggestion because of his false assumptions and conclusion. Consequently, to make his suggestion more convincing, he has to take the facets discussed above into accounts, that is, to find the genuine reason for the decline of listeners and to survey whether people still like such kind of music.

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