Argument45 临考倒数第三篇，求拍，谢谢~~

@amy@UID: 209096

题目
Argument45 The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

翻译：
北极鹿生活在加拿大极地区域的岛屿上。它们全年都通过冰块在岛屿间移动来寻找食物。它们的栖居地局限在那些温暖得足以维持它们所需的植物生长，并且在一年的至少某些时候冷到足以让岛屿间的海面结冰以使它们能够在岛屿间旅行的地方。然而，根据当地猎人的报告，鹿的数量正在下降。由于这一报告正好与最近导致海洋冰面融化的全球变暖趋势同时发生，我们可以得出结论：北极鹿数量的下降是它们无法按它们原有的迁移习惯穿越结冰海面的结果。

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提纲
（1）猎人的报告不可信。
（2）全球变暖不一定对那个地区产生了影响，而且即使有影响，不一定就全年任何时候都没有冰了。
（3）即使鹿真的少了，变暖对那个地方也有影响，也不一定是气候变暖的原因，有可能是传染病（infection）、过度捕杀等等。

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字数：399 words
时间：30分钟
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正文
In this argument, the arguer attributes the decline in arctic deer populations to the recent global warming trends, but in my point of opinion, I think he suffers several flaws that he is too hasty to trust the reports from local hunters and fails to build causality between the decline and global warming trends.

First of all, whether the reports from local hunters that the deer populations are declining is open to doubt. On the one hand, the reports from local hunters maybe just base on their guesses and observations and they do not count the deer designedly. On the other hand, even if they really have counted the deer, the data is likely not accurate since they maybe do not have reasonable method and advanced equipment to assist their count. So it is totally possible they miscount a great number of deer.

Secondly, the arguer wrongly assumes global warming trends have influenced the Canada's arctic region where arctic deer live. There is no evidence to prove the sea ice of that region also melts. In addition, even if the sea ice has began to melt, it will take long time to melt completely because the ice maybe very deep. Thus it is very likely that there is still some of the year that the ice can cover the sea, so deer can travel over it. Under such circumstance, the trend will not be the reason.

Last but not the least, granted that the deer populations do decline dramatically, the arguer fails to consider other possible reasons that maybe cause the decline of arctic deer populations. As the arguer mentions, there are hunters in that region. One possibility is that the hunters mainly hunt for the arctic deer for the deer can be sold at very high prices and then cause the deer less and less. Another possibility is that there are some infections among the deer that result the quick decrease of deer populations. Consequently, unless all the other possible reasons are denied, the arguer cannot judge arbitrarily that the phenomena is caused by global warming trend.

To sum up, the arguer is too cursory to get the conclusion because he lacks strong evidence. To make his conclusion more convincing, he has to take the facets discussed above into account, that is, to confirm the deer populations really decline and to exclude other alternative reasons for the decline.

kito9695UID: 209685

argument的字数有些少~~提醒amy注重批驳的细节，这样可以增加字数~

@amy@UID: 209096

嗯，是啊，这篇字数写得太少了，5555，不知道写什么

kito9695UID: 209685

我记得小花这篇写得不错，你去搜来看看吧~

@amy@UID: 209096

嘿嘿，好~~~  ^_^

lgwwinUID: 2296004

虽然花花很大可能性得更高分，但我觉得那篇举的理由有点牵强。如猎人受arctic deer威胁会数错数目，但怎么以前没数错，现在就数错了？或者以前就错，但为什么现在错得更厉害？

freeatomUID: 2142222

去年的帖子都翻出来了