argument53 同主题写作，有拍必回

ddloveyyUID：2225606

TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

outline:
A: the survey lack representibility.
B: over generalize the melatonin's role
C: teenagers' mental conditions may have other factors

The arguer concludes that melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and the shyness continues into later life. On the first sight of the argument, it seems logical, however, by examing further, the unconvincing result of the survey and hasty conclusion lead the argument ungrouded for the reasons below.

To begin with, the conclusion is based on an incredible survey. First, the survey investing 25 infants, the number of sample is a little short, which result in the lacking representibility of these infants. Second, the random of this survey is doubted for the 25 infants, with different physical and mental conditions, may be influenced by the medical methods and environment of hospital. Third, the reflection of the infants--the signs of mild distress means little. After all, even for adults, the unfalimilar stimuli may lead to the unconfortable reflection, let alone the infants. Without considering these possible factors which may affect the credibility of the survey, the result is unconvincing so that the argument cannot be credible.

Secondly, the arguers fails establish the causal relationship between melatonin and mild distress of the infants. Even if the survey does indicate the unfamiliar stimuli lead to the mild distress, but it means little to indicate the role of the melatonin. One the one hand, maybe the time of the birth--early autumn, cannot indicate the influence of the melatonin on infants. As the argument stands, the infants was born in early autumn, the accumulation of the melatonin is not reach a relatively high level, thus the later results may have other possible reasons. If the melatonin affect infants’ mind indeed, the baby born in winter might be influenced most. On the other hand, without enough information of the melatonin, we do not know whether the chemical material affect on the infants or on their mothers. If the chemical material only affect the mothers' brain condition, the further conlusion is misleading. Under such a circumstance, we can hardly believe the arguments for its limited information on melatonin.

Finally, the follow-up studies over generalize the role of the melatonin affecting the teenagers’ shyness. As the arguer points out, more that half of these teenagers showed shyness, but more than half is not a large number or proportion. As we know, adolescence is a special period in a person’s life and numbers of boys and girls present shyness and sensitivity. That is to say, the shyness is not the direct result of the melatonin during the infancy and maybe a normal condition when the children became teenagers. For another, even if the shyness is not normal contracting with other teenagers, it is lighly possible that other factors, rather than melatonin, affect their mental condition. For example, family play a fundamental role in molding the charactors of teenagers, and the attitude of the father and mother influence the chiled’s mind deeply. Or some of these poor teenagers have experienced abrupt accidents which shadowed their originally happy childhood and adolescence. However, the arguer overlooks these possible factors and reach the hasty conclusion, leading to a unpersuasive argument inevitablly.

In sum, each of the evidence, and the process of reasoning as well, is flawed and thus the incredibilty of the argument decreases. To better support the conclusion, the arguer should place more emphasis on the survey and other factors of these teenagers mental distress.

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pewcg8UID：2143213

占!