Argument59【六人作文小组】第3周第5次作业组长说是难题

sneakerliuUID: 2481691

TOPIC: ARGUMENT59 - The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.

"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity-that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun."
WORDS: 473

TIME: 上午 12:30:00
DATE: 2009-1-23
提纲1，减少晒太阳可以保护吗？side effects
2， sunspot=!flu

没有流行的时候没有sunspot？

其他factors
3 其他方法



The author of this article avers that people at risk for the flu should avoid too much exposure to sun in order to protect themselves from flu based on the evidence presented. Seemly reasonable the ratiocination is. However, after also scrutiny, many reasons are groundless yet unconvincing.

A threshold involved is whether the method of avoiding prolonged exposure to sun could lower the risk of catch a flu even during the heavy sunspot activity year since there exists no evidence it is the exposure to sunshine that cause the flu. Actually, the heavy sunspot activity affects the earth magnetism or environment as whole that lead to the flu epidemics. Thus, the method of avoiding exposure to sun would be useless. Moreover, it is also too hastily to conclude that people should avoid too much exposure to sun during the years that sunspot activity is mild, as the author provides no study related to convince that when the sunspot activity is not so heavy, it causes dramatic flu too.

Additionally, another significant problem remains is whether the sunspot indeed cause the flu epidemics. The author presents no evidence of the hygiene situations in those years with dramatic flu epidemics. Meanwhile, other factors such as people's lifestyle could also contribute to the flu epidemics in those years. Only if the author justify that the sunspot activities are mild in those years without flu epidemics can we link the sun with flu. In this regard, without related study to justify those doubts and possible conditions, we cannot even confidently conclude that there is any relationship between sunspot activities with flu epidemics.

Lastly, even if one were to concede that there does exist a link between sunspot activities and the flu epidemics, doubts still remain as whether avoiding exposure would be the best choice for the public. Since exposure to sunshine does contribute to a healthier immune system and provide people with enough Vitamin D, both are vital for people's heath. In this regard, a decreasing exposure to sun would actually affect our health. Furthermore, the author also neglects other possible way to avoid flu epidemics such as encourage the public to exercise more and enable them with a better medical system. Actually, these polices are the most efficient way to figure out the problems. Taking into considering of these possible policies, simply encourage people expose less to sun would not fix the problem most efficiently.

In sum, to better bolster the author's suggestion, evidence related to the link of flu and sunspot activities is necessary. Additionally, studies about other factors that cause flu and whether avoiding people's exposure to sun is the best way to eliminate the sunspot effects are also needed. More considerations should be taken to ensure a better public health and searching for other more efficient policies to protect people from flu epidemics.

IthakaUID: 2511650

可能是巧合，不一定sunspot和flu之间不一定存在逻辑关系。
1随着这几个年份中流行flu,但可能有其他太阳黑子活跃的年份并没有严重flu，说明不是严格的因果关系。
2 即使因果关系存在，太阳黑子和flu之间可能存在一个中间变量，就是说只有当黑子活动出发了某个因素，才会对病人有flu构成影响。
3 如果不是中间变量，也可能太阳黑子对flu是必要而非充分条件，如果其他引发flu流行的条件不具备，晒不晒太阳可能没有关系。
4 即使太阳黑子与flu流行有关系，这个关系不一定是通过日晒的因素，比如可能和黑子活动引发的气候现象有关，这样晒不晒太阳不一定是有意义的。
5 即使太阳黑子活跃时期日晒过量会引发流感，太阳黑子非活跃期晒太阳可能并没有影响。

sneakerliuUID: 2481691

顶LS
其实和我写的差不多，谢谢你的分析