argument235 【永不言弃互改小组】第十九次作业 by 9号

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235.The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.

"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics."

若干因素表明KNOW电台应该把它的节目从摇滚乐转成连续的新闻节目。举例来说，我们覆盖范围内的老年人数量显著增加，而总的听众数量最近减少了。而且，我们地区音像店中录制音乐的销量下降。最后，邻近城市的连续新闻节目非常成，最近大选前组织的一次调查显示，本地居对于及时的政治报导很感兴趣。

235.shift program from rock-and-roll to a continuous news format 论断：K应该别再播摇滚乐而改成滚动新闻。因为听众地区的老年人急剧上升，而听众却在下降。另外，我们地区的音乐商店报告说音乐唱片的销售在下降。最后隔壁城的滚动新闻电台挺成功，一份在最近选举前做的调查显示当地居民对更了解政治有兴趣。 ·前提，没什么人听音乐节目了。没有证据表明。老年观众上升和听众人数下降都不说明问题，因为我们不知道基数是多少。另外观众人数下降有可能跟近期节目做得不好有关系，电台应该努力把音乐节目质量提高，吸对音乐感兴趣的人。而对于老年人，他们也许不爱听摇滚乐，但也没有证据说他们会喜欢政治新闻。 ·前提，没有听音乐了。音乐商店和电台不一样，一个花钱买片子，一个免费听歌曲。商店销售下降可能跟经济萧条购买力下降以及最近没有什么新唱片发行有关系，而这种情况可能正好会使听电台音乐的人增加。 ·前提，滚动新闻节目好。没有证据说明新闻的观众比音乐的观众多，而且选举前情况特殊这种形势可能会很快改变。 ·结论：电台还是应该尽量按照现有的路子发展，因为毕竟积累了一定的经验和影响力，转变动静太大。


The argument recommend that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to news format, TO support this recommendation the arguer cites the number of older people and the total number of listeners as evidence. The auger also assume that the decrease sale of recorded music in their area will contribute to the
same results in listening music by radio. In addition, comparing with neighboring cities and according to a unjustified survey the argument infers that continuous news will be popular in the area. Close scrutiny of each of these facts, however, reveals that none of them lend credible support to the recommendation.

The first problem with this argument is that the auger assume that the older people are not interested in rock music and the decline of the total number of their listeners due to the radio provide a lot of rock music. However, it is not the case. There is no information could help us draw the conclusion that old people is much prefer continuous news to rock music. It is entirely possible that the older people in this area keep a positive attitude towards rock music and they would like to listen them from the radio. And, the argument also fail to provide us with information aboutthe real reasons of the decline of the total number of their listener. It is possible that the weather in this area is bad which influenced the listeners to receive the programs leading to the total number decline.

Another flaw that weakens this argument is that the arguer think that the decreased sales of recorded music will also happen in the radio music. However, the arguer fails to provide any information regarding this assumption respectively. May be the situation is different and even adverse..Probably, the economy of this area is not as prosperous as before, and people have no money to buy records, as a result, they would prefer to listen music from radio. In a word, the argument can't convinced me without explaining the alternative factors .

In addition, in evaluating the evidence of the comparison with the neighboring cities, one must consider the difference of the two areas. It is possible that the people in the neighbor city are more interested in politics than the citizens in our city, and they would like to listen news, yet the result can't apply to our city simply without completely survey. Besides, the survey which the arguer cites is unreliable because any detail has been showed that the respondents of the survey could represent all the citizens and reflect all the listeners' interest. Even if the survey is justified, it might the situation before election, the special time , and can't mirror the residents consistent taste. Factors such as these could undermine the providence of the argument.

In conclusion, to persuade me that the radio should alert their programs from rock music to continuous news, the arguer must supply clear evidence that the listener are would like to listen news than music, andthe person who do not buy recorded music also do not listen radio music. The arguer must also provide evidence that the result of neighbor city can apply to the local citizen. Otherwise, I will can't be convinced.