argument235 永不言弃互改小组 by MYcolting

MYcoltingUID: 2563080

235.The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of
KNOW radio station.
"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its
programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format.
Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area
has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has
recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales     
of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities
have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent
election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better
informed about politics."
若干因素表明KNOW电台应该把它的节目从摇滚乐转成连续的新闻节目。举例来说，我们覆盖范围内的老年人数量显著增加，而总的听众数量最近减少了。而且，我们地区音像店中录制音乐的销量下降。最后，邻近城市的连续新闻节目非常成功，最近大选前组织的一次调查显示，本地居民对于及时的政治报导很感兴趣。







In this argument, the arguer concludes that radio station KNOW should change their program--rock and roll music--to continuous news format which can increase the number of people who listening to the radio station KNOW. To support the conclusion, the arguer points out that the fact that the number of old people increased dramatically, while the total number of the listeners and the sales of record music in their area declined. What is more, in order to demonstrate the necessity of turning into continuous format, the arguer takes the example of neighboring cities which have been very successful and a survey shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics. However, this argument suffers from several critical fallacies.

Firstly, the argument is based on a false analogy. The arguer simply assumes that the residents in the area of the general manager are as same as the one in the neighboring cities. Though the continuous news station of the neighboring cities is successful, there is not enough and persuasive evidence to prove that the suggestion would be effective. The chief reason is that the survey was taken before the recent election shows that citizens place interest in politics. The survey cannot indicate the residents would be also interested in politics when there is no election in the future. It is possible and reasoning that someone do not care politics besides the period of election. Deeping down, the news about politics cannot delegate the news because news is consisted of different fields such as entertainment, athletics and so on. Therefore, only the interest in politics cannot show that people would prefer all kinds of news. Even if the residents care about politics in daily life, the arguer still cannot convince us in that there is no evidence to show that they will through listening to radio to get daily news. Maybe the citizens prefer TV or newspapers to radio.

Secondly, the arguer commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. It is presumptuous to judge the phenomenon of decreasing in the number of listener according to the sales of music stores declining. We all share a common sense that music stores cannot only sell only one kind of music, it always include various music to meet the different consumers. Thus, what is possible is that the sales of the other styles of music not the rock and roll music declined, which was lead to the whole sales decreasing. In addition, generally speaking, the old prefer the music which is gentle to the rock and roll music that seems too clamorous for them. Because of the above reason, that increasing in the number of older people is not in proportion to the high rate of listener. Moreover, the ability of listening of the old is often bad that they tend to watch TV instead of radio. Simply put, the facts that the sales of music stores and the increased number of the old cannot explain any questions.

In conclusion, the arguer fails to establish a causal relationship between his suggestion and the evidence he provided. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide evidence that residents in that area indeed show great interests in news and the factor lead to the decline in the sales of the music store is rock and roll music.

xiaoyaozi5566UID: 2510336

个人认为还有一点，就是听众的减少可能并不是由于音乐的问题，而是近期的节目的质量不好造成的。即使是老年听众增多，作者也没有证明老年人就更喜欢听新闻，也许他们更喜欢听传统音乐。
最后，关于唱片销量不好，也可以有另外一些原因：经济不景气，购买唱片的人减少；最近一段时间没有大牌专辑；盗版（pirate copy）严重

MYcoltingUID: 2563080

2# xiaoyaozi5566
恩 知道了 还真是没有想到  谢谢哈