- 最后登录
- 2014-5-1
- 在线时间
- 380 小时
- 寄托币
- 786
- 声望
- 4
- 注册时间
- 2008-9-23
- 阅读权限
- 25
- 帖子
- 14
- 精华
- 0
- 积分
- 487
- UID
- 2549787

- 声望
- 4
- 寄托币
- 786
- 注册时间
- 2008-9-23
- 精华
- 0
- 帖子
- 14
|
发表于 2009-6-27 20:57:51
|显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 sara550827 于 2009-6-27 21:00 编辑
101The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that makes breakfast cereals.
"In a recent study, subjects who ate soybeans at least five times per week had significantly lower cholesterol levels than subjects who ate no soy products. By fortifying our Wheat-O cereal with soy protein, we can increase sales by appealing to additional consumers who are concerned about their health. This new version of Wheat-O should increase company profits and, at the same time, improve the health of our customers."
Based on the research involving cholesterol level of two groups, one of which eat soybeans regularly and the other do not, the president argues that by fortifying by fortifying their Wheat-O cereal with soy protein, they can attract more consumers and thus increase the profits of their company. It appears to be logic at the first glance, but when take a close look, there leaves several unconvincing assumptions.
First of all, the president unfairly assumes that it is because of the soy protein which contained in soybeans that lead to the low levels of cholesterol. Soybean, a nutritious food, contains rich vitamins, fat, protein, and so on. The possibility is ignored that some other nutrients in soybean cause the decreasing level of cholesterol. On the other hand, it is possible that without the combined effect with some other substance in soybean the soy protein alone cannot lower the cholesterol level. Thus, only integrating the Wheat-O cereal with soy protein might make no sense.
Secondly, given that adding soy protein in the cereal can decrease the cholesterol, it does not mean that it can improve the health of their customers. Low cholesterol does not equal to health. Although high cholesterol harasses many people, as cholesterol is an essential component of hormone, too low level of cholesterol may also cause the endocrine disorders.
Thirdly, without the evaluation of cost and income the president cannot convince us that it is worthwhile to make the change. One possibility is that the potential consumers of Wheat-O cereal do not care about their cholesterol as the president assumes. It is likely that the sales target groups are mainly the young people and for them there is no need to lower the cholesterol level. This condition may lead to no increase in the sales hence in the profit. Another possibility is that the cost which used to produce the new version many be so expensive that the increasing income cannot cover. Granted that the sales would be increase, this may still not enough to offset the cost of production process, advertising, and so on. Thus, the profits expected cannot be guaranteed.
In sum, the evidences provided by the president cannot strongly support his conclusion. To make the argument more convincing, the president must prove that it is the soy protein and only the protein that works to lower the cholesterol level. The president must also remove the negative effects which may cause by protein. Besides, it is crucial for the president to make sure that the change of Wheat-O cereal will necessarily increase the company profits regardless the cost. |
|