ARGUMENT2 [Dancing in the Dark] 高频练习4 by fingshang

fingshangUID: 2469559

TOPIC: ARGUMENT2 - The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres.

"Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and housepainting."
WORDS: 582
TIME: 00:60:00
DATE: 2009-7-21 上午 08:50:51

Based on the fact that average property values tripled in nearby Brookville after a set of restriction about the landscape and painting of exteriors of homes, assuming that the situations in Deerhaven Acres are similar to Brookville, and together with a hasty generalization, the committee of homeowners suggests that they should also adopt their own set of restrictions on landscaping and house painting. It seems at the first glance reasonable and house owners should respond urgently to pass the restrictions. However, a second thought reveals several logical flaws in the argument.

First of all, rested on the assumption that the situation in Deerhaven Acres seven years ago is similar to Brookville right now, the committee draws its conclusion. Yet the problem is that the they fail to realize that situation are not similar enough to justify the analogical deduction. Deerhaven Acres and Brookville, although not far away from each other, actually may bear numerous differences. For example, Do they have the same type of yards? What does the house in Brookville looks like, similar to Deerhaven Acres or not? The apartments are combined together or separated? Does it as easy to paint the house in Deerhaven Acres as Brookville? May be it's the surrounding landscapes---trees, rivers or mountains, that together with the color of the houses in
Brookville make it more beautiful but we do not have that kind of environment in
Deerhaven Acres. Accordingly, Deerhaven Acres is unlikely to experience the same consequence if it adopts Brookville's strategies.

Secondly, the committee assumes that the adoption of the set of restriction
causes the rise in the property values. But the reasoning is premature unless other possible causal explanations have been considered and ruled out. It can not be guaranteed that rising price necessarily result from the adoption of the rules they made. For instance, what about the overall economic development at seven years ago? Maybe that's a booming period of real estate and almost all of the house prices increased a lot. Or otherwise, Buyers may be just interested in the land instead of the house and
the real reason they buy it is for future investment. Therefore, any further decision aimed at increasing the property value in Deerhaven Acres must be based on more thorough investigation to gather sufficient data in order to narrow down and locate the actual cause of the tripled price.


What's more, the author commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. Even if the restrictions make the increase on property value today in Deerhaven Acres possible, it does not follow that house owners should adopt it. Seven years have passed. Time changes. things change. people change. May be the outside appearance of the house is not most attractive point among customers. They are concerning about may be the convenience to connect the internet. The inside decoration which can both be comfortable to life and concentrate on thinking and working, because most of the young couples choose to work at home in this information age and do their business online. Without concerning about these facts and trends, the author cannot confidently jump to the conclusion to invest money on the garden and house painting.

To sum up, the author's reasoning is somewhat persuasive. But it suffers from several logical flaws as mentioned above. Further investigation of the situation happened seven years ago and a much more reasonable forecast of the real estate market in Deerhaven Acres based on sufficient data and cogent deduction will be benefit to strengthen the argument here.

daisyfuUID: 2624773

请问argument 的高频哪里有啊？找了半天没找到，还有20天考了~~~求指点

virgo_zhang0910UID: 2380285

Based on the fact that average property values tripled in nearby Brookville after a set of restriction about the landscape and painting of exteriors of homes, assuming that the situations in Deerhaven Acres are similar to Brookville, and together with a hasty generalization, the committee of homeowners suggests that they should also adopt their own set of restrictions on landscaping and house painting. It seems at the first glance reasonable and house owners should respond urgently to pass the restrictions. However, a second thought reveals several logical flaws in the argument.

First of all, rested on(呵呵~这个还真没见过，记下了~) the assumption that the situation in Deerhaven Acres seven years ago is similar to Brookville right now, the committee draws its conclusion. Yet the problem is that the they fail to realize that situation are(is) not similar enough to justify the analogical deduction(我觉得不如说所给的证据不足以证明这个构想在两个地方都可以同样适用~~). Deerhaven Acres and Brookville, although not far away from each other, （这个是怎么知道的？~）actually may bear numerous differences. For example, Do(do) they have the same type of yards? What does the house in Brookville looks like, similar to Deerhaven Acres or not? The apartments are combined together or separated? Does it as easy to paint the house in Deerhaven Acres as Brookville? May be it's the surrounding landscapes---trees, rivers or mountains, that together with the color of the houses in Brookville make it more beautiful but we do not have that kind of environment in Deerhaven Acres. Accordingly, Deerhaven Acres is unlikely to experience the same consequence if it adopts Brookville's strategies.(这句感觉说的有些绝对了~)

Secondly, the committee assumes that the adoption of the set of restriction
causes the rise in the property values. But the reasoning(reason?~) is premature unless other possible causal explanations have been considered and ruled out. It can not be guaranteed that rising price necessarily result from the adoption of the rules they made. For instance, what about the overall economic development at seven years ago? Maybe that's a booming period of real estate and almost all of the house prices increased a lot. Or otherwise, Buyers may be just interested in the land instead of the house and
the real reason they buy it is for future investment. Therefore, any further decision aimed at increasing the property value in Deerhaven Acres must be based on more thorough investigation to gather sufficient data in order to narrow down and locate the actual cause of the tripled price.


What's more, the author commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. Even if the restrictions make the increase on property value today in Deerhaven Acres possible, it does not follow that house owners should adopt it. Seven years have passed. Time changes. things change. people change.(中间可以用逗号连接吧？~) May be the outside appearance of the house is not most attractive point among customers. They are concerning about may be the convenience to connect the internet. The inside decoration which can both be comfortable to life(for living) and (be beneficial for concentrating )concentrate on thinking and working, because most of the young couples choose to work at home in this information age and do their business online. Without concerning about these facts and trends, the author cannot confidently jump to the conclusion to invest money on the garden and house painting.

To sum up, the author's reasoning is somewhat persuasive. But it suffers from several logical flaws as mentioned above. Further investigation of the situation happened seven years ago and a much more reasonable forecast of the real estate market in Deerhaven Acres based on sufficient data and cogent deduction will be benefit to strengthen the argument here。


呵呵~写的挺好的~总体思路挺清晰的~
Argument 写的挺成熟的~呵呵~加油啊！！！！