TOPIC：ARGUMENT 45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
超时了两分钟~~~
提纲：
1．猎人的报告不可信
2．全球变暖不一定Canada北极地区就海水融化。可能有洋流ocean current
3．就算鹿的数目下降了，海水也融了，两个之间也没有什么必然联系。可能鹿的基因受到阳光射线照射被破坏了，或者是因为过度捕杀。
Prior to accepting the assertion that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to migrate from island to island, the evidence presented in this argument requires an in-depth scrutiny from several aspects, by doing which, I find that the author seems to have unduly relied on a series of illogical reasoning without taking into other possibilities and thus draws a conclusion that is fundamentally flawed.
To begin with, the author illogically presumes that the deer population is declining merely based on the hunters' reports, which, however, may not be the case. It is entirely possible that the hunters only see a small part of deer population when they hunt, which cannot represent overall deer population through this region. It is also possible that the hunters mistakenly record the data because of their nervousness and dreadfulness when being threatened by large games, say, arctic bears. Moreover, as we know, the hunters seldom have necessary appliance for measuring the exact number of certain species just like the expert does. Hence, this record, which the argument based upon, can not convince me at all.
In addition, the author also takes it for granted that the global warming must have cause the sea ice to melt in Canada. Unfortunately, he fails to recognize the peculiarity of Canada's arctic region against the average conditions of the whole world. Geographic knowledge tells us that the ocean current can also exert great influence on a region's climate. For that matter, we have good reasons to doubt if there is certain ocean current passing through this region, which can keep the sea of this area frozen with the outside world becoming warm. Since the author fails to respond to this concern, the authenticity and credibility of his reasoning can not be justified.
Even if we concede that the decline of deer population is true and also the sea ice melts in Canada's arctic region, it would be nevertheless perfunctory to conclude that the reduction of arctic deer population is due to the change of their migration pattern. As we know, population of a species usually depends on several dimensions, such as their genes, birth rate and death rate. In that case, there is a good chance that the genes of the arctic are destroyed by the strong ray of sun in arctic region, or perhaps the decline of population is just due to the over-hunting of the hunters. Accordingly, any of these scenarios would inevitably undermine the author's conclusion.
To sum up, this argument is weakened by the flaws discussed above. Much work is needed before drawing conclusion; otherwise, the argument would be unfounded.作者: lawrence1984 时间: 2006-2-17 10:58:01
argument45 北极鹿
TOPIC：ARGUMENT 45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
超时了两分钟~~~
提纲：
1．猎人的报告不可信
2．全球变暖不一定Canada北极地区就海水融化。可能有洋流ocean current
3．就算鹿的数目下降了，海水也融了，两个之间也没有什么必然联系。可能鹿的基因受到阳光射线照射被破坏了，或者是因为过度捕杀。（我觉得提纲还好。）Prior to accepting the assertion that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to migrate from island to island, the evidence presented in this argument requires an in-depth scrutiny from several aspects, by doing which, I find that the author seems to have unduly relied on a series of illogical reasoning without taking into other possibilities and thus draws a conclusion that is fundamentally flawed.
To begin with, the author illogically presumes that the deer population is declining merely based on the hunters' reports, which, however, may not be the case. It is entirely possible that the hunters only see a small part of deer population when they hunt, which cannot represent overall deer population through this region. It is also possible that the hunters mistakenly record the data because of their nervousness and dreadfulness when being threatened by large games, say, arctic bears.（这种原因也想得到！） Moreover, as we know, the hunters seldom have necessary appliance for measuring the exact number of certain species just like the expert does. Hence, this record, which the argument based upon, can not convince me at all.（这段驳斥很有特色，和以前见到的不一样。）
In addition, the author also takes it for granted that the global warming must have cause the sea ice to melt in Canada. Unfortunately, he fails to recognize the peculiarity of Canada's arctic region against the average conditions of the whole world. Geographic knowledge tells us that the ocean current can also exert great influence on a region's climate.（我觉得你的思维很专业，我写得时候就没有想到这些知识。） For that matter, we have good reasons to doubt if there is certain ocean current passing through this region, which can keep the sea of this area frozen with the outside world becoming warm. Since the author fails to respond to this concern, the authenticity and credibility of his reasoning can not be justified.
Even if we concede that the decline of deer population is true and also the sea ice melts in Canada's arctic region, it would be nevertheless perfunctory to conclude that the reduction of arctic deer population is due to the change of their migration pattern. As we know, population of a species usually depends on several dimensions, such as their genes, birth rate and death rate. In that case, there is a good chance that the genes of the arctic are destroyed by the strong ray of sun in arctic region, or perhaps the decline of population is just due to the over-hunting of the hunters. Accordingly, any of these scenarios would inevitably undermine the author's conclusion.
To sum up, this argument is weakened by the flaws discussed above. Much work is needed before drawing conclusion; otherwise, the argument would be unfounded.
文章很有特色，给我的感觉和以前写得不一样，也许你已经有了自己更深切的感受了，文章句式很专业，也很连贯，但是我觉得结构上的思路没有以前那么突出。