Argument53 【米国有米】小组 第十次作业

ernest81888UID: 2247639

53．Thirteen years ago, researcher studied a group of 25 infants who showed sighs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers’ production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers- who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

Syllabus:

Flaw 1: hasty generalization—25 infants are not representative
Flaw 2: causal oversimplification: besides melatonin, other element might effect on these infants’ shyness.
Flaw 3: hasty generalization---teenagers’ response of shyness can not lead to the shyness continues into later life.

In this argument, the speaker concludes that shyness during infancy and will continue into later life is caused by increased levels of melatonin before birth. To support his conclusion, the speaker cited a study on 25 infants along with a follow-up survey when they are teenagers, both two seem to show these persons are more likely to be shy. Additionally, he also assumes the increasing of melatonin is in response to their shyness. This argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned.

Firstly, a threshold problem with the argument involves the statistical reliability of the study of infants. The speaker provides no evidence that the number of respondents is statistically significant or that the respondents were representative of infants in general. Lacking information about the randomness and creditable size of the study’s sample, the speaker can not make a convincing argument based on that study.

Secondly, even if the study is representative of the entire population of infants, the speaker still commits a fallacy of causal oversimplification in assuming that increased in melatonin is all that is required for people’s shyness. While melatonin is an important element in determining shyness, it is hardly the only one. To establish a general causal relationship between the increased melatonin and their shyness, other factors that could result in shyness should be considered and eliminated. For example, frequency of exercise, dieting-habit, health situation or other reasons of these mothers may cause their children’s shyness not only during infancy, but in later-time also. The speaker’s failure to investigate or even consider other possible explanation for people’s shyness renders the conclusion based upon it highly suspect.

At last, the follow-up survey after 10 years old also can not determine infants’ shyness will continue into their later life. Perhaps these people in experiment form their characteristic of shyness at the age of 10 years old, but not feel shy at 9 years old. Or perhaps they show shyness temporally, but will not be shy when they are more aged. If this is the case, then the speaker’s conclusion about such shyness will continue into later-life can not be taken seriously.

In sum, this argument is not well supported. To make it logically acceptable, the auger should provide evidence to indicate the study of 25 infants is representative. Also in order to better assess the strength of conclusion, I would need more information about whether the increased melatonin is the only factor result in people’s shyness. It will be also helpful to make a fully investigation on these people in different ages such as at 4s, 6s, 10s, 20s, 40s.

[ 本帖最后由 ernest81888 于 2007-1-18 21:56 编辑 ]

wbavwUID: 2176149

53．Thirteen years ago, researcher studied a group of 25 infants who showed sighs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers’ production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers- who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.

Syllabus:

Flaw 1: hasty generalization—25 infants are not representative
Flaw 2: causal oversimplification: besides melatonin, other element might effect on these infants’ shyness.
Flaw 3: hasty generalization---teenagers’ response of shyness can not lead to the shyness continues into later life.

In this argument, the speaker concludes that[+the] shyness during infancy and [+which] will continue into later life is caused by[+the] increased[increasing] levels [不用加s吧]of melatonin before birth. To support his conclusion, the speaker cited a study on 25 infants along with a follow-up survey when they are teenagers, both two [个人认为应该改为of the two 或of which,不然指代不明]seem to show these persons are more likely to be shy. Additionally, he also assumes the increasing of melatonin is in response to their shyness. This argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned. [最后一句和前面缺少连接，前面应该加一句“如上所述”之类的话，或者应该加一个连词才更连贯。]

另外第一段还应注意一下时态，看一下绿色部分，你就明白了，时态应该一致。


Firstly, a threshold problem with the argument involves the statistical reliability of the study of infants. The speaker provides no evidence that the number of respondents is statistically significant or that the respondents were representative of infants in general. Lacking information about the randomness and creditable size of the study’s sample, the speaker can not make a convincing argument based on that study.

Secondly, even if the study [不是研究具有代表性，而应是研究的结果有代表性]is representative of the entire population of infants, the speaker still commits a fallacy of causal oversimplification in assuming that increased [+amount]in melatonin is all that is required for people’s shyness. While melatonin is an important element in determining shyness, it is hardly the only one. To establish a general causal relationship between the increased melatonin and their shyness, other factors that could result in shyness should be considered and eliminated. For example, frequency of exercise, dieting-habit, health situation or other reasons of these mothers may cause their children’s shyness not only during infancy, but in later-time also.[这句话前后是两个意思，我认为应该分开说比较好，比如可以用个递进词把前后连接起来。]The speaker’s failure to investigate or even consider other possible explanation for people’s shyness renders the conclusion based upon it highly suspect.

At last, the follow-up survey after 10 years old also can not determine infants’ shyness will continue into their later life. Perhaps these people in experiment form their characteristic of shyness at the age of 10 years old, but not feel shy at 9 years old. Or perhaps they show shyness temporally, but will not be shy when they are more aged.[好句，用了perhaps...or perhaps,还连续用了两个but not...,增强了语势，值得学习] If this is the case, then the speaker’s conclusion about such shyness will continue into later-life can not be taken seriously.

觉得中间三段的论述都很清楚，结构也很完整，有很大的进步啊！

In sum, this argument is not well supported. To make it logically acceptable, the auger should provide evidence to indicate the study of 25 infants is representative. Also in order to better assess the strength of conclusion, I would need more information about whether the increased melatonin is the only factor result in people’s shyness. It will be also helpful to make a fully investigation on these people in different ages such as at 4s, 6s, 10s, 20s, 40s.

整体感觉小马的进步很大，看来下了不少功夫，结构清晰，长句明显增多，而且很多，语言也越来越专业，不过还是建议长短句结合比较好，这样文章比较有节奏感，呵呵，看来我要加紧练习了，不然水平就一路下滑了，我要努力赶上，a za a za fighting!

[ 本帖最后由 wbavw 于 2007-1-20 23:10 编辑 ]