ARGUMENT147 [kb9.11]第二次作业

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147.The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

In this argument the author affirms that the sales trend of Whirlwind (W) video games is bound to be reversed, though it has declined over the past two years. To support his assertion, he cites the result of a recent survey, which is conducted among video-game players; also he mentions that W has held an extensive advertising campaign to introduce several such games. However, this argument suffers from a series of poor flaws, which render it wholly unpersuasive as it stands.

Foremost, the author fails to offer any causes of the declination of sales of W video game. However, as sales trend is concerned, it is necessary and essential to seek for and analyze the basic reasons to cause the inclination, and without a reasonable analysis on the declination, the assertion,       that the sales will be reversed by introducing another games, is unpersuasive and hasty. It is highly possible that it is the W’s unscientific management of personnel that leads to some problems in the administration and distribution of power, which undermine the cooperation and efficiency of W, and eventually result in the inclinations in sales. Besides, it is also possible that because of the game market condition itself is unfavorable, almost all the game producers suffer from a declination in sales including W. If so, the declination belongs to normal fluctuation and thus deserves few changes in marketing policy. Therefore, without ruling out these two or other possible scenarios, the author cannot reasonably conclude that the sales will be reversed only by introducing several games into the market.

Besides, the validity of the survey is open to doubt. Firstly, it seems the author fails to provide evidence that the total number of the respondents is large enough for a scientific and statistical survey. If the sample is too small, then the result turns out to be ineffective. Secondly, even though the survey sample is sufficient in size, it is still doubtful whether the respondents are representative of the overall video-game players especially the people who will purchase W video games. It seems the author mistakenly establish a correlation between the general video-game players and the sales of W video game. Because not all the video-game players, who responded in the survey, are bound to purchase the W video games. Therefore, before possible factors, that undermine the validity of the survey, are taken into consideration, the result of the survey will remain insufficient to support the argument.

Additionally, even if the causes of the declination are analyzed and the survey is of validity, still there remains another problem to hamper the increase of sales: the hardware requirement of the new-introduced games is too strict. It is true that the advanced games might fit most video-game players’ taste, but how many players, most of who are teenagers without a stable economic foundation, can afford the games which require the most up-to-date computers? And if so, lack of buyers would avoidably result in another declination in sales. Thus, the author should also take this point into account.

In sum, the argument that seems logical at first has several flaws above. To bolster the argument the author must find out and analyze the causes of the declination as well as prove survey is of validity by offering evidence that the sample is sufficient in size and the respondents are representative of the W video game buyers. Furthermore, the author also should take the balance between the hardware requirement relating to the games and the purchasing power of the video-game players into account. Before these measures are done, however, yet the argument can not convince me.


提纲:
A26
1. Firstly, the author fails to provide the imformation that music conditions and progresses of SCHS before Mr. CS taking the place of music directtor.
2. Secondly, the author mistakenly establishes a correlation betweenthe employment of Mr. CS and the improvement of the quality of the music rehearsal facilities and musicial instrument.
3. Finally, Mr. CS might not necessarily be good at general musuc education as well as be the direction of music band.


A42
1. The author assumes that ecotourism is the cause of the increase of the number of the foreign visitors and per capita income in B, which commit a fallacy that the former is the cause of the latter.
2. without knowing the base number of visitors and per capita income, increase twice in number of visitors and ten percent in per capita income could merely lend credible support to that ecotourism is highly profitable in B.
3. Even if ecotourism is profitable in B, it is not necessarily the case in p.
4. The current director of B's National Tourism Office is not necessarily good at the planning of advertising campaign on ecotourism.

A50
1.The author fails to offer evidence that any  water present would have evaporated and gone off into space.
2. It is possible that the comets are going to melt on the way to the earth, and therefore they would be undermined enormously in size when they arrive earth.
3. The author also ignore other internal reasons of the earth itself, and maybe water is generated by the reactions of some exsting elements of earth.   


A163
1. It is not necessary for the size of the hall to accommodte the whole number of people who are employed by the town.
2. Although the cost per suqare foot of the new hall is cheaper, yet the large square of the hall might add up to a high cost as a whole.
3. Since there exist some additonal space, it means the size of the hall is beyond the actual need, and therefore, more or less, it is a waste of money.

A229
1. The author offer no information whether the punctured suit still could protect staff from exposure to toxic chemicals.
2. It is also open to doubt whether the number of the managers are adequate in terms of the number of the stuff.
3. Also the author mistakenly establishes a correlation between the new plan and the productivity and company profitability.
    a. Maybe the safety suit is uncomfortable to wear.
    b. It is high possible that the cost of the whole new plan is very expensive

[ 本帖最后由 phoenixlw 于 2007-8-16 20:00 编辑 ]