argument45 【7\8\9\10】第二次作业

lisheng19881108UID: 2358622

The argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned. The author concludes the correlation between the decline in arctic deer populations and their age-old migration patterns, and, then, the author thinks that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. At first glance, the author’s reasoning seems to be appealing, while clearly examining the author’s reasoning, we may find that it is unconvincing. The argument contains several facets that are questionable.

Firstly, the premises of the conclusion may not be established. One of the premises is that the local temperature is exactly higher but the author does not provide any information to prove it.  In addition, the author has failed to consider other premise that the deer will die because of higher temperature. Perhaps the temperature becomes higher and their living conditions and patterns may have some changes, but this can not lead to the death of deer.

Secondly, the arguer commits a fallacy of false analogy. For example, the author only says that recent global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt. However, the global warming trends can not take place the local conditions. Such conditions may include the fact that the global warming trends may due to some place where temperature is too much higher. It is possible that the local temperature is just as usual and even may be lower than before. Furthermore, we can not make sure whether the number of beer is decline. The author says the decline in arctic deer populations just according to reports from local hunters. But there is the possibility that the hunter can not hunt beer so they think the number of deer is decline. Besides this, time, area, custom all can affect whether local hunter can see arctic beer.

Last but not lease, If the number of deer is becoming small, there are several other alternatives. For example, do the local hunter themselves hunt beer? If so, there may be the decline of population just because of excessive hunt. Of course, if the food that arctic deer live on is declining, the number of deer also will be smaller. So the conclusion is arbitrary and the author does not take enough possibilities seriously.

To sum up, the conclusion lacks of credibility. Regardless of who the author is, he or she has overlooked or chosen to ignore many aspects of his or her conclusion. To strengthen the conclusion, the author should give more evidences about the above-mentioned possibilities.